Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2494
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2494
01 Dec 2023
 | 01 Dec 2023

Dakar Niño variability under global warming investigated by a high-resolution regionally coupled model

Shunya Koseki, Rúben Vázquez, William Cabos, Claudia Gutiérrez, Dmitry V. Sein, and Marie-Lou Bachèlery

Abstract. In this study, we investigated the interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) along the northwest African coast and the strong Dakar Niño and Niña events, and their potential changes under the highest emission scenario RCP8.5 of global warming using a high-resolution regional coupled model. Our model accurately reproduces the SST seasonal cycle along the northwest African coast and its interannual variability in terms of amplitude, timing, and position of the maximum variability. Comparing the Dakar Niño variability between the 1980–2010 and 2069–2099 periods, we found that its variability intensifies under a warmer climate without changing its location and timing. The intensification is more pronounced during the Dakar Niñas (cold SST events) than during Niños (warm SST events) and the ocean temperature variability is connected more deeply with the Dakar Niño variability (vertical motion is more deeply correlated with Dakar Niño variability). The increase of Dakar Niño variability can be explained by the larger variability in meridional wind stresses, which is likely to be amplified in the future by enhanced land-sea thermal contrast and associated sea-level pressure anomalies elongated from the Iberian-Mediterranean area. In addition, the ocean temperature is warmed more effectively above 40m depth, where the temperature anomaly is maximum, i.e., the stratification is reinforced around 40m depth. This enhanced stratification may also lead to an increase in the amplitude of the Dakar Niño/Niña events.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

08 Nov 2024
Dakar Niño under global warming investigated by a high-resolution regionally coupled model
Shunya Koseki, Rubén Vázquez, William Cabos, Claudia Gutiérrez, Dmitry V. Sein, and Marie-Lou Bachèlery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1401–1416, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1401-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Shunya Koseki, Rúben Vázquez, William Cabos, Claudia Gutiérrez, Dmitry V. Sein, and Marie-Lou Bachèlery

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2494', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Feb 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Shunya Koseki, 25 Mar 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2494', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Feb 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Shunya Koseki, 25 Mar 2024

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2494', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Feb 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Shunya Koseki, 25 Mar 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2494', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Feb 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Shunya Koseki, 25 Mar 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (28 Mar 2024) by Ben Kravitz
AR by Shunya Koseki on behalf of the Authors (10 Jun 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (17 Jun 2024) by Ben Kravitz
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (27 Jun 2024)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (04 Jul 2024)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (09 Jul 2024) by Ben Kravitz
AR by Shunya Koseki on behalf of the Authors (17 Aug 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (21 Aug 2024) by Ben Kravitz
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (04 Sep 2024)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (04 Sep 2024)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (04 Sep 2024) by Ben Kravitz
AR by Shunya Koseki on behalf of the Authors (11 Sep 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (17 Sep 2024) by Ben Kravitz
AR by Shunya Koseki on behalf of the Authors (18 Sep 2024)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

08 Nov 2024
Dakar Niño under global warming investigated by a high-resolution regionally coupled model
Shunya Koseki, Rubén Vázquez, William Cabos, Claudia Gutiérrez, Dmitry V. Sein, and Marie-Lou Bachèlery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1401–1416, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1401-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Shunya Koseki, Rúben Vázquez, William Cabos, Claudia Gutiérrez, Dmitry V. Sein, and Marie-Lou Bachèlery
Shunya Koseki, Rúben Vázquez, William Cabos, Claudia Gutiérrez, Dmitry V. Sein, and Marie-Lou Bachèlery

Viewed

Total article views: 552 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
401 111 40 552 43 26 28
  • HTML: 401
  • PDF: 111
  • XML: 40
  • Total: 552
  • Supplement: 43
  • BibTeX: 26
  • EndNote: 28
Views and downloads (calculated since 01 Dec 2023)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 01 Dec 2023)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 569 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 569 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 08 Nov 2024
Download

The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Using a high-resolution regionally-coupled model, we have suggested that Dakar Niño variability will be reinforced under RCP8.5 scenario. This may be induced by the intensified meridional surface wind variability along the west African coast. In addition, the stronger wind variability can be attributed to the amplified surface temperature anomalies between ocean and land.