03 Apr 2023
 | 03 Apr 2023

Stochastic properties of coastal flooding events – Part 2: Probabilistic analysis

Byungho Kang, Rusty A. Feagin, Thomas Huff, and Orencio Durán Vinent

Abstract. Low-intensity but high-frequency coastal flooding, also known as nuisance flooding, can negatively affect low-lying coastal communities with potentially large socioeconomic effects. This flooding also can greatly affect post-storm coastal dune recovery and reduce the long-term resilience of the back-barrier ecosystem. Recent analytical work has hypothesized that these frequent flooding events are uncorrelated in time and can be modeled as a marked Poisson process with exponentially distributed sizes, a result with important implications for the prediction of coastal flooding. Here we test this proposition using high-temporal-resolution field measurements of an eroding beach on the Texas coast. A time series of the flooded area was obtained from pictures using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based semantic segmentation methods. After defining the flooding events using a peak-over-threshold method, we found that the size of the flooding events indeed followed an exponential distribution as hypothesized. Furthermore, the flooding events were uncorrelated with one another at daily time scales, but correlated at hourly time scales. Finally, we found relatively good statistical agreement between our CNN-based empirical flooding data and run-up predictions. Our results formalize the first probabilistic model of coastal flooding events driven by wave run-up which can be used in coastal risk management and landscape evolution models.

Byungho Kang et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-238', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 May 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Orencio Duran Vinent, 31 Jul 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-238', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Jun 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Orencio Duran Vinent, 31 Jul 2023

Byungho Kang et al.

Byungho Kang et al.


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Short summary
We provide a detailed characterization of the frequency, intensity and duration of flooding events at a site along the Texas coast that demonstrates the suitability of relatively simple wave run-up models to estimate the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding. Our results validate and expands the first probabilistic model of coastal flooding driven by wave run-up, which can then be used in coastal risk management and coastal response to sea level rise.