Significant human health co-benefits of African emissions mitigation

Abstract. Future African aerosol emissions, and therefore air pollution levels and health outcomes, are uncertain. Here, the range in the future impacts of African emissions in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios is studied, using the Earth System Model UKESM1 along with human health concentration-response functions. Using present-day demographics, annual deaths attributable to ambient particulate matter are estimated to be lower by 150,000 under stronger African aerosol mitigation by 2090, while those attributable to O₃ are lower by 15,000. The particulate matter health benefits are realised predominantly within Africa, with the O₃-driven benefits being more widespread – though still concentrated in Africa – due to the longer atmospheric lifetime of O₃. These results demonstrate the important health co-benefits from future emissions mitigation in Africa.