Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2018
20 Sep 2023
 | 20 Sep 2023

Wintertime Extreme Warming Events in the High Arctic: Characteristics, Drivers, Trends, and the Role of Atmospheric Rivers

Weiming Ma, Hailong Wang, Gang Chen, Yun Qian, Ian Baxter, Yiling Huo, and Mark W. Seefeldt

Abstract. An extreme warming event near the North Pole, with temperature rising above 0 ℃, was observed in late December 2015. This specific event has been attributed to cyclones and their associated moisture intrusions. However, little is known about the characteristics and drivers of similar events in the historical record. Here, using data from ERA5, we study these winter extreme warming events with temperature above 0 ℃ over the high Arctic (poleward of 80° N) occurred during 1980–2021. In ERA5, such extreme events can only be found over the Atlantic sector. They occur rarely, with a seasonal occurrence frequency less than one over most of the regions. Furthermore, even when occurring, they tend to be short-lived, with the majority of the events lasting for less than a day. By examining their surface energy budget, we found that these events transition with increasing latitude from a regime dominated by turbulent heat flux into the one dominated by downward longwave radiation. Blockings over the northern Eurasia are identified as a key ingredient in driving these events, as they can effectively deflect the eastward propagating cyclones poleward, leading to intense moisture and heat intrusions into the high Arctic. Using an atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm, the roles of ARs in driving these events are explicitly quantified. The importance of ARs in inducing these events increases with latitude. Poleward of about 83° N, ARs are the direct driver for 100 % of these events, corroborating the indispensable roles ARs played in driving these events. Over the past four decades, both the frequency, duration, and magnitude of these events have been increasing significantly. As the Arctic continues to warm, these events are likely to increase in both frequency, duration and magnitude, with great implications for the local sea ice, hydrological cycle and ecosystem.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

17 Apr 2024
Wintertime extreme warming events in the high Arctic: characteristics, drivers, trends, and the role of atmospheric rivers
Weiming Ma, Hailong Wang, Gang Chen, Yun Qian, Ian Baxter, Yiling Huo, and Mark W. Seefeldt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4451–4472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4451-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4451-2024, 2024
Short summary
Weiming Ma, Hailong Wang, Gang Chen, Yun Qian, Ian Baxter, Yiling Huo, and Mark W. Seefeldt

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2018', Rodrigo Caballero, 28 Sep 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Weiming Ma, 29 Sep 2023
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2018', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Oct 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2018', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Oct 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2018', Rodrigo Caballero, 28 Sep 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Weiming Ma, 29 Sep 2023
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2018', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Oct 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2018', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Oct 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Weiming Ma on behalf of the Authors (03 Jan 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (12 Jan 2024) by Heini Wernli
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (23 Jan 2024)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (30 Jan 2024)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (09 Feb 2024) by Heini Wernli
AR by Weiming Ma on behalf of the Authors (26 Feb 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (28 Feb 2024) by Heini Wernli
AR by Weiming Ma on behalf of the Authors (01 Mar 2024)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

17 Apr 2024
Wintertime extreme warming events in the high Arctic: characteristics, drivers, trends, and the role of atmospheric rivers
Weiming Ma, Hailong Wang, Gang Chen, Yun Qian, Ian Baxter, Yiling Huo, and Mark W. Seefeldt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4451–4472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4451-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4451-2024, 2024
Short summary
Weiming Ma, Hailong Wang, Gang Chen, Yun Qian, Ian Baxter, Yiling Huo, and Mark W. Seefeldt
Weiming Ma, Hailong Wang, Gang Chen, Yun Qian, Ian Baxter, Yiling Huo, and Mark W. Seefeldt

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Short summary
Extreme warming events with temperatures above 0 °C can occur in the winter high Arctic. Using reanalysis data from 1980–2021, we found that these events occur less than once per winter over most of the impacted regions, typically lasting less than a day. A dipole pressure system, comprising high and low systems, is a key driver of these events. In recent decades, these events have become more frequent, longer-lasting, and stronger, impacting sea ice, the hydrological cycle, and the ecosystem.