the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Wintertime Extreme Warming Events in the High Arctic: Characteristics, Drivers, Trends, and the Role of Atmospheric Rivers
Abstract. An extreme warming event near the North Pole, with temperature rising above 0 ℃, was observed in late December 2015. This specific event has been attributed to cyclones and their associated moisture intrusions. However, little is known about the characteristics and drivers of similar events in the historical record. Here, using data from ERA5, we study these winter extreme warming events with temperature above 0 ℃ over the high Arctic (poleward of 80° N) occurred during 1980–2021. In ERA5, such extreme events can only be found over the Atlantic sector. They occur rarely, with a seasonal occurrence frequency less than one over most of the regions. Furthermore, even when occurring, they tend to be short-lived, with the majority of the events lasting for less than a day. By examining their surface energy budget, we found that these events transition with increasing latitude from a regime dominated by turbulent heat flux into the one dominated by downward longwave radiation. Blockings over the northern Eurasia are identified as a key ingredient in driving these events, as they can effectively deflect the eastward propagating cyclones poleward, leading to intense moisture and heat intrusions into the high Arctic. Using an atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm, the roles of ARs in driving these events are explicitly quantified. The importance of ARs in inducing these events increases with latitude. Poleward of about 83° N, ARs are the direct driver for 100 % of these events, corroborating the indispensable roles ARs played in driving these events. Over the past four decades, both the frequency, duration, and magnitude of these events have been increasing significantly. As the Arctic continues to warm, these events are likely to increase in both frequency, duration and magnitude, with great implications for the local sea ice, hydrological cycle and ecosystem.
-
Notice on discussion status
The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
-
Preprint
(5338 KB)
-
Supplement
(634 KB)
-
The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
- Preprint
(5338 KB) - Metadata XML
-
Supplement
(634 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
- Final revised paper
Journal article(s) based on this preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
-
CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2018', Rodrigo Caballero, 28 Sep 2023
This is a nice paper. It covers much of the same ground as Messori et al. (2018)---even the title is almost identical---and yet that paper is not mentioned. In the interest of maintaining good scholarly standards, the Messori et al. paper should at least be cited here. Even better, the current paper would be more informative to the community if it compared and contrasted its results with those of the Messori et al. paper.
Messori, G., C. Woods, and R. Caballero, 2018: On the drivers of wintertime temperature extremes in the High Arctic. Journal of Climate, 31, 1597–1618.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2018-CC1 -
AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Weiming Ma, 29 Sep 2023
Dear Prof. Caballero, Thank you for the constructive comment and for pointing us to Messori et al. (2018). We must admit that both the first author (Weiming Ma) and the second author (Hailong Wang) of the current study have read the paper some time ago. Unfortunately, we somehow forgot to cite it during the writing of our manuscript. Although the definition of the high Arctic wintertime warm extremes differs and the main datasets are not identical between these two studies, we agree with you that many of the findings in our study are consistent with what were reported in Messori et al. (2018). For example, both studies identify the dipole pattern in sea level pressure as a key driver for these events and show that these events exhibit temporal clustering. Messori et al. (2018) demonstrates that these events are associated with moisture intrusions, while we show that atmospheric rivers are an important direct driver of these events. Given the relevance of Messori et al. (2018) to our current study, we will cite the paper properly and further compare our results with those in Messori et al. (2018) in our next revision. Thank you again for taking the time to read our manuscript and make this constructive comment.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2018-AC1
-
AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Weiming Ma, 29 Sep 2023
-
RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2018', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Oct 2023
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2018/egusphere-2023-2018-RC1-supplement.pdf
-
RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2018', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Oct 2023
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2018/egusphere-2023-2018-RC2-supplement.pdf
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
-
CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2018', Rodrigo Caballero, 28 Sep 2023
This is a nice paper. It covers much of the same ground as Messori et al. (2018)---even the title is almost identical---and yet that paper is not mentioned. In the interest of maintaining good scholarly standards, the Messori et al. paper should at least be cited here. Even better, the current paper would be more informative to the community if it compared and contrasted its results with those of the Messori et al. paper.
Messori, G., C. Woods, and R. Caballero, 2018: On the drivers of wintertime temperature extremes in the High Arctic. Journal of Climate, 31, 1597–1618.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2018-CC1 -
AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Weiming Ma, 29 Sep 2023
Dear Prof. Caballero, Thank you for the constructive comment and for pointing us to Messori et al. (2018). We must admit that both the first author (Weiming Ma) and the second author (Hailong Wang) of the current study have read the paper some time ago. Unfortunately, we somehow forgot to cite it during the writing of our manuscript. Although the definition of the high Arctic wintertime warm extremes differs and the main datasets are not identical between these two studies, we agree with you that many of the findings in our study are consistent with what were reported in Messori et al. (2018). For example, both studies identify the dipole pattern in sea level pressure as a key driver for these events and show that these events exhibit temporal clustering. Messori et al. (2018) demonstrates that these events are associated with moisture intrusions, while we show that atmospheric rivers are an important direct driver of these events. Given the relevance of Messori et al. (2018) to our current study, we will cite the paper properly and further compare our results with those in Messori et al. (2018) in our next revision. Thank you again for taking the time to read our manuscript and make this constructive comment.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2018-AC1
-
AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Weiming Ma, 29 Sep 2023
-
RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2018', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Oct 2023
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2018/egusphere-2023-2018-RC1-supplement.pdf
-
RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2018', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Oct 2023
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2018/egusphere-2023-2018-RC2-supplement.pdf
Peer review completion
Journal article(s) based on this preprint
Viewed
HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
490 | 168 | 27 | 685 | 43 | 16 | 17 |
- HTML: 490
- PDF: 168
- XML: 27
- Total: 685
- Supplement: 43
- BibTeX: 16
- EndNote: 17
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Country | # | Views | % |
---|
Total: | 0 |
HTML: | 0 |
PDF: | 0 |
XML: | 0 |
- 1
Weiming Ma
Gang Chen
Yun Qian
Ian Baxter
Yiling Huo
Mark W. Seefeldt
The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
- Preprint
(5338 KB) - Metadata XML
-
Supplement
(634 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
- Final revised paper