Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1951
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1951
20 Dec 2023
 | 20 Dec 2023

The YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation

Jonathan Day, Gunilla Svensson, Barbara Casati, Taniel Uttal, Siri-Jodha Khalsa, Eric Bazile, Elena Akish, Niramson Azouz, Lara Ferrighi, Helmut Frank, Michael Gallagher, Øystein Godøy, Leslie Hartten, Laura X. Huang, Jareth Holt, Massimo Di Stefano, Irene Suomi, Zen Mariani, Sara Morris, Ewan O'Connor, Roberta Pirazzini, Teresa Remes, Rostislav Fadeev, Amy Solomon, Johanna Tjernström, and Mikhail Tolstykh

Abstract. Although the quality of weather forecasts in the polar regions is improving, forecast skill there still lags the lower latitudes. So far there have been relatively few efforts to evaluate processes in Numerical Weather Prediction systems using in-situ and remote sensing datasets from meteorological observatories in the terrestrial Arctic and Antarctic, compared to the mid-latitudes. Progress has been limited both by the heterogeneous nature of observatory and forecast data but also by limited availability of the parameters needed to perform process-oriented evaluation in multi-model forecast archives. The YOPP site Model Inter-comparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) is addressing this gap by producing Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) and Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs), bringing together observations and forecast data at polar meteorological observatories in a format designed to facilitate process-oriented evaluation.

An evaluation of forecast performance was performed at seven Arctic sites, focussing on the first YOPP Special Observing Period in the Northern Hemisphere (SOP1), February and March 2018. It demonstrated that although the characteristics of forecast skill vary between the different sites and systems, an underestimation in boundary layer temperature variance across models, which goes hand in hand with an inability to capture cold extremes, is a common issue at several sites. Diagnostic analysis using surface fluxes suggests that this is at least partly related to insufficient thermal representation of the land-surface in the models, which all use a single layer snow model.

Jonathan Day, Gunilla Svensson, Barbara Casati, Taniel Uttal, Siri-Jodha Khalsa, Eric Bazile, Elena Akish, Niramson Azouz, Lara Ferrighi, Helmut Frank, Michael Gallagher, Øystein Godøy, Leslie Hartten, Laura X. Huang, Jareth Holt, Massimo Di Stefano, Irene Suomi, Zen Mariani, Sara Morris, Ewan O'Connor, Roberta Pirazzini, Teresa Remes, Rostislav Fadeev, Amy Solomon, Johanna Tjernström, and Mikhail Tolstykh

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CEC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1951', Astrid Kerkweg, 26 Jan 2024
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1951', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Jan 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1951', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Feb 2024
Jonathan Day, Gunilla Svensson, Barbara Casati, Taniel Uttal, Siri-Jodha Khalsa, Eric Bazile, Elena Akish, Niramson Azouz, Lara Ferrighi, Helmut Frank, Michael Gallagher, Øystein Godøy, Leslie Hartten, Laura X. Huang, Jareth Holt, Massimo Di Stefano, Irene Suomi, Zen Mariani, Sara Morris, Ewan O'Connor, Roberta Pirazzini, Teresa Remes, Rostislav Fadeev, Amy Solomon, Johanna Tjernström, and Mikhail Tolstykh

Data sets

Merged model Data Files (MMDFs) for the Meteo France ARPEGE global forecast model for various Polar sites E. Bazile and N. Azouz https://doi.org/10.21343/T31Z-J391

MMDFs for the Meteo France AROME regional forecast model for various Arctic sites E. Bazile and N. Azouz https://doi.org/10.21343/JZH3-2470

MMDFs for the Environment and Climate Change Canada-CAPS regional forecast model for various Arctic sites B. Casati https://doi.org/10.21343/2BX6-6027

MMDFs for the ECMWF-IFS global forecast model for various Polar sites J. Day https://doi.org/10.21343/A6KA-7142

MMDFs for the DWD-ICON global forecast model for various Arctic sites. H. Frank https://doi.org/10.21343/09KM-BJ07

MMDFs for the MetNorway AROME regional forecast model for various Arctic sites T. Remes https://doi.org/10.21343/47AX-MY36

MMDFs for the Roshydromet-SLAV global forecast model for various Arctic sites M. Tolstykh https://doi.org/10.21343/J4SJ-4N61

Jonathan Day, Gunilla Svensson, Barbara Casati, Taniel Uttal, Siri-Jodha Khalsa, Eric Bazile, Elena Akish, Niramson Azouz, Lara Ferrighi, Helmut Frank, Michael Gallagher, Øystein Godøy, Leslie Hartten, Laura X. Huang, Jareth Holt, Massimo Di Stefano, Irene Suomi, Zen Mariani, Sara Morris, Ewan O'Connor, Roberta Pirazzini, Teresa Remes, Rostislav Fadeev, Amy Solomon, Johanna Tjernström, and Mikhail Tolstykh

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Short summary
The YOPP site Model Inter-comparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) which was designed to facilitate enhanced weather forecast evaluation in polar regions. The paper focusses on describing the archive of forecast data and presents a multi-model evaluation at Arctic supersites during February and March 2018. The study highlights an underestimation in boundary layer temperature variance which is common across models and their related inability to forecast cold extremes at several of the sites.