Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1941
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1941
11 Sep 2023
 | 11 Sep 2023

Can we reliably reconstruct the mid-Pliocene Warm Period with sparse data and uncertain models?

James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, Erin McClymont, and Sze Ling Ho

Abstract. We present a reconstruction of the surface climate of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), specifically Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) KM5c or 3.205 Ma. We combine the ensemble of climate model simulations which contributed to the PlioMIP projects, with compilations of proxy data analyses of sea surface temperature (SST). The different data sets we considered are all sparse with high uncertainty, and the best estimate annual global mean surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly varies from 1.0 up to 4.7 °C depending on data source.

We argue that the latest PlioVAR analysis of alkenone data is likely more reliable than other data sets we consider, and using this data set yields a SAT anomaly of 3.6 ± 1.0 °C, with a value of 2.8 ± 0.9 °C for SST (all uncertainties are quoted at one standard deviation). However, depending on the application, it may be advisable to consider the wider range to account for structural uncertainty. The regional scale information in the reconstruction may not be reliable as it is largely based on the patterns simulated by the models. Nevertheless, despite the uncertainties, there is some indication that polar amplification may be underestimated in the models.

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James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, Erin McClymont, and Sze Ling Ho

Status: closed (peer review stopped)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1941', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Oct 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1941', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Dec 2023

Status: closed (peer review stopped)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1941', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Oct 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1941', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Dec 2023
James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, Erin McClymont, and Sze Ling Ho
James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, Erin McClymont, and Sze Ling Ho

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This study presents an interesting attempt to reconstruct global surface temperature by combining sparse SST proxy data and PlioMIP2 simulations using a state-of-the-art data assimilation framework. The work highlights the potential of this method for providing key insights into past warming patterns, and will serve as a good starting point for future investigations.
Short summary
We have created a new global surface temperature reconstruction of the climate of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, representing the period roughly 3.2 million years before the present day. We estimate that the globally averaged mean temperature was around 3.6 °C warmer than it was in pre-industrial times, but there is significant uncertainty on this value.