Testing the 2020 European Seismic Hazard and Risk Models using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake

Abstract. Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk models are essential to improving our awareness of seismic risk, to its management, and to increasing our resilience against earthquake disasters. These models consist of a series of components, which may be tested and validated individually, however testing and validating these types of models as a whole is challenging due to the lack of recognised procedures. Estimations made with other models, as well as observations of ground shaking and damages in past earthquakes lend themselves to testing the components for ground motion modelling and for the severity of damage to buildings. Here, we are using observations of damages caused by the Le Teil 2019 earthquake, third-party estimations of macroseismic intensity for this seismic event, and ShakeMap analyses in order to conduct tests on estimations made with scenario simulations using components of the 2020 Euro-Mediterranean Seismic Hazard Model and the European Seismic Risk Model. The tests concern the number of damaged buildings, the grade of damage, estimated ground motion intensity measures, and macroseismic intensity. In some scenarios, the models forecast shaking and damage consistent with the observations, while major divergences from observations are attributed to factors external to the tested models, such as the location of the hypocentre.