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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1679
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1679
25 Sep 2023
 | 25 Sep 2023

Timing of spring events changes under modelled future climate scenarios in a mesotrophic lake

Jorrit P. Mesman, Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro, Ana I. Ayala, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Dennis Trolle, and Don Pierson

Abstract. Lakes experience shifts in the timing of processes as a result of climate warming, and especially relative changes in the timing of events may have important ecological consequences. Spring in particular is a period in which many key processes that regulate the ecology and biogeochemistry of lakes occur, and also a time which may experience significant changes under influence of global warming. In this study, we used a coupled catchment-lake model forced by future climate projections to evaluate changes in the timing of spring discharge, ice-off, the spring phytoplankton peak, and the onset of stratification, in a mesotrophic, temperate lake. All these events showed a clear trend towards earlier occurrence with climate warming, with ice cover tending to disappear at the end of the century in the most extreme climate scenario. Moreover, relative shifts in the timing of these springtime events also occurred, with the onset of stratification tending to advance slower than the other events, and the spring phytoplankton peak and ice-off advancing faster in the most extreme climate scenario. The outcomes of this study stress the impact of climate change on the phenology of processes in lakes and especially the relative shifts in timing during spring. This can have profound effects on food-web dynamics as well as other regulatory processes, and influence the lake for the remainder of the growing season.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

18 Apr 2024
Timing of spring events changes under modelled future climate scenarios in a mesotrophic lake
Jorrit P. Mesman, Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro, Ana I. Ayala, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Dennis Trolle, and Don C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1791–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024, 2024
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Spring events in lakes are key processes for ecosystem functioning. We used a coupled...
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