Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1623
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1623
03 Aug 2023
 | 03 Aug 2023

A landslide runout model for sediment transport, landscape evolution and hazard assessment applications

Jeffrey Keck, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Benjamin Campforts, Gregory Tucker, and Alexander Horner-Devine

Abstract. We developed a new rule-based, cellular-automaton algorithm for predicting the hazard extent, sediment transport and topographic change associated with the runout of a landslide. This algorithm, which we call MassWastingRunout (MWR), is coded in Python and implemented as a component for the package Landlab. Given the location and geometry of an initial landslide body (i.e., landslide polygon), MWR models the downslope progression of the runout process and evolves the underlying terrain. Runout behavior is controlled by mass continuity, topography, and rules for erosion and deposition, which can be informed from field observations. MWR includes a calibration utility that uses a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample model parameter space and tune the model to match observed patterns of landslide runout extent, deposition and erosion. Output from the calibration utility informs probabilistic implementation of MWR. Here we demonstrate calibrated model performance relative to a range of observed runout phenomena and terrain, including debris flows in channelized, low-energy-dissipation terrains and debris avalanches on open-slope, moderate, to high-energy-dissipation terrains. We test model ability to predict runout probability at a case study site using parameters that were determined through calibration to a different site. Finally, we show how to use a calibrated MWR model to determine runout-probability from an expert-defined, potentially unstable slope and a landslide hazard map.

Jeffrey Keck, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Benjamin Campforts, Gregory Tucker, and Alexander Horner-Devine

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1623', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Sep 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1623', Saskia de Vilder, 04 Oct 2023
  • AC1: 'Thank you, Jeff Keck reply to referees', Jeffrey Keck, 07 Jan 2024
Jeffrey Keck, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Benjamin Campforts, Gregory Tucker, and Alexander Horner-Devine

Model code and software

MassWastingRunout Jeff Keck https://github.com/keckje/landlab/tree/MWR/landlab/components/mass_wasting_router

Jeffrey Keck, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Benjamin Campforts, Gregory Tucker, and Alexander Horner-Devine

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Short summary
Landslide hazards include both direct impacts associated with the runout extent of the landslide as well as secondary impacts associated with the sediment delivered to downslope channels. Numerous landslide runout and debris flow models exist but few can be used to track sediment or topographic change caused by the landslide. This paper introduces a new landslide runout model, called MassWastingRunout, that is specifically designed to meet these needs.