Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1622
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1622
25 Jul 2023
 | 25 Jul 2023

A global social activation model of enabling conditions for positive social tipping – the role of sea-level rise anticipation and climate change concern

E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann

Abstract. Effective climate change mitigation necessitates swift societal transformations. Social tipping processes, where small triggers initiate qualitative systemic shifts, are potential key mechanisms instigating societal change. A necessary foundation for societal tipping processes is the creation of enabling conditions. Here we assess future sea-level rise estimates and social survey data within the framework of a social activation model to exemplify the enabling conditions for tipping processes. We find that in many countries, climate change concern is sufficient, the enabling conditions and opportunities for social activation already exist. Further, drawing upon the interrelation between climate change concern and anticipation of future sea level rise, we report three qualitative classes of tipping potential that are regionally clustered, with greatest potential for tipping in Western Pacific rim and East Asian countries. These findings propose a transformative pathway where climate change concern increases the social tipping potential, while extended anticipation time horizons can trigger the system towards an alternative trajectory of larger social activation for climate change mitigation.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann

Status: closed (peer review stopped)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1622', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Aug 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply to Reviewer 1', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC5: 'References for all responses', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC6: 'Notes on organization of responses to reviewer comments', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1622', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Nov 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply to Reviewer 2', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC5: 'References for all responses', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC6: 'Notes on organization of responses to reviewer comments', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1622', Anonymous Referee #3, 24 Nov 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply to Reviewer 3', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC5: 'References for all responses', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC6: 'Notes on organization of responses to reviewer comments', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
  • RC4: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1622', Anonymous Referee #4, 05 Feb 2024
    • AC4: 'Reply to Reviewer 4', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC5: 'References for all responses', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC6: 'Notes on organization of responses to reviewer comments', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024

Status: closed (peer review stopped)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1622', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Aug 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply to Reviewer 1', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC5: 'References for all responses', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC6: 'Notes on organization of responses to reviewer comments', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1622', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Nov 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply to Reviewer 2', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC5: 'References for all responses', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC6: 'Notes on organization of responses to reviewer comments', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1622', Anonymous Referee #3, 24 Nov 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply to Reviewer 3', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC5: 'References for all responses', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC6: 'Notes on organization of responses to reviewer comments', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
  • RC4: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1622', Anonymous Referee #4, 05 Feb 2024
    • AC4: 'Reply to Reviewer 4', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC5: 'References for all responses', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
    • AC6: 'Notes on organization of responses to reviewer comments', Keith Smith, 20 Mar 2024
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann

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Short summary
Social tipping dynamics have received recent attention as a potential mechanism for effective climate actions – yet how such tipping dynamics could unfold remains largely unquantified. We explore how social tipping processes can developed via enabling necessary conditions (exemplified by climate change concern) and increased perceptions of localized impacts (sea-level rise). The likelihood for social tipping varies regionally, mostly along areas with highest exposure to persistent risks.