Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-159
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-159
16 Feb 2023
 | 16 Feb 2023
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Dense water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean under global warming scenario

Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Ruben Vazquez, William Cabos, Dmitry V. Sein, Oscar Álvarez, Miguel Bruno, and Alfredo Izquierdo

Abstract. Dense water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean (EMed) is essential in sustaining the Mediterranean overturning circulation. Changes in the sources of dense water in the EMed point to changes in the circulation and the water properties of the Mediterranean Sea. Here we examine with a regional climate system model the changes in the dense water formation in the EMed through the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Our results show a shift in the dominant source of Eastern Mediterranean Deep Water (EMDW) from the Adriatic Sea to the Aegean Sea at the first half of twenty-first century. The projected dense water formation reduces by 75 % for the Adriatic Sea, 84 % for the Aegean Sea and 83 % for the Levantine Sea by the end of the century. The reduction in the intensity of deep water formation is related to hydrographic changes of surface and intermediate water, that strengthen the vertical stratification hampering the vertical mixing and thus the convection. Those changes have an impact on the water that flows through the Sicilian Strait to the Western Mediterranean and therefore on the whole Mediterranean system.

Iván M. Parras-Berrocal et al.

Status: open (until 13 Apr 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-159', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Mar 2023 reply
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Iván Manuel Parras Berrocal, 30 Mar 2023 reply

Iván M. Parras-Berrocal et al.

Data sets

ROM model data for Eastern Mediterranean Dense Water Formation Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Rubén Vázquez, William Cabos, Dimitry V. Sein, Oscar Álvarez, Miguel Bruno, and Alfredo Izquierdo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7594313

Iván M. Parras-Berrocal et al.

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Short summary
Global warming may strongly affect dense water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean, potentially impacting basin circulation and water properties. We find that at the end of the century the dense water formation is reduced by 75 % for the Adriatic, 84 % for the Aegean and 83 % for the Levantine Sea. This reduction is caused by changes in the temperature and salinity of surface and intermediate waters, which strengthen the vertical stratification hampering the deep convection.