Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-159
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-159
16 Feb 2023
 | 16 Feb 2023

Dense water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean under global warming scenario

Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Ruben Vazquez, William Cabos, Dmitry V. Sein, Oscar Álvarez, Miguel Bruno, and Alfredo Izquierdo

Abstract. Dense water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean (EMed) is essential in sustaining the Mediterranean overturning circulation. Changes in the sources of dense water in the EMed point to changes in the circulation and the water properties of the Mediterranean Sea. Here we examine with a regional climate system model the changes in the dense water formation in the EMed through the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Our results show a shift in the dominant source of Eastern Mediterranean Deep Water (EMDW) from the Adriatic Sea to the Aegean Sea at the first half of twenty-first century. The projected dense water formation reduces by 75 % for the Adriatic Sea, 84 % for the Aegean Sea and 83 % for the Levantine Sea by the end of the century. The reduction in the intensity of deep water formation is related to hydrographic changes of surface and intermediate water, that strengthen the vertical stratification hampering the vertical mixing and thus the convection. Those changes have an impact on the water that flows through the Sicilian Strait to the Western Mediterranean and therefore on the whole Mediterranean system.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

28 Jun 2023
| Highlight paper
Dense water formation in the eastern Mediterranean under a global warming scenario
Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Rubén Vázquez, William Cabos, Dimitry V. Sein, Oscar Álvarez, Miguel Bruno, and Alfredo Izquierdo
Ocean Sci., 19, 941–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-941-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-941-2023, 2023
Short summary Co-editor-in-chief

Iván M. Parras-Berrocal et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-159', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Mar 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Iván Manuel Parras Berrocal, 30 Mar 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-159', Anonymous Referee #2, 30 Mar 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Iván Manuel Parras Berrocal, 11 May 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-159', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Mar 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Iván Manuel Parras Berrocal, 30 Mar 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-159', Anonymous Referee #2, 30 Mar 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Iván Manuel Parras Berrocal, 11 May 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Iván Manuel Parras Berrocal on behalf of the Authors (22 May 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (24 May 2023) by Xinping Hu
AR by Iván Manuel Parras Berrocal on behalf of the Authors (29 May 2023)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

28 Jun 2023
| Highlight paper
Dense water formation in the eastern Mediterranean under a global warming scenario
Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Rubén Vázquez, William Cabos, Dimitry V. Sein, Oscar Álvarez, Miguel Bruno, and Alfredo Izquierdo
Ocean Sci., 19, 941–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-941-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-941-2023, 2023
Short summary Co-editor-in-chief

Iván M. Parras-Berrocal et al.

Data sets

ROM model data for Eastern Mediterranean Dense Water Formation Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Rubén Vázquez, William Cabos, Dimitry V. Sein, Oscar Álvarez, Miguel Bruno, and Alfredo Izquierdo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7594313

Iván M. Parras-Berrocal et al.

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

This research predicts the potential future of the Eastern Mediterranean's circulation under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, using a coupled regional climate system model and a global oceanic model. The study predicts a significant decrease in dense water formation, a key process in Mediterranean overturning circulation, by up to 84% in the Adriatic, Aegean, and Levantine seas by the end of the century. This study forecasts a shift in the main source of Eastern Mediterranean Deep Water from the Adriatic Sea to the Aegean Sea. These changes, related to increased vertical stratification that hinders vertical mixing and convection, fill a crucial gap in our understanding of how climate change could reshape the Mediterranean Sea's dynamics.
Short summary
Global warming may strongly affect dense water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean, potentially impacting basin circulation and water properties. We find that at the end of the century the dense water formation is reduced by 75 % for the Adriatic, 84 % for the Aegean and 83 % for the Levantine Sea. This reduction is caused by changes in the temperature and salinity of surface and intermediate waters, which strengthen the vertical stratification hampering the deep convection.