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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-159
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-159
16 Feb 2023
 | 16 Feb 2023

Dense water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean under global warming scenario

Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Ruben Vazquez, William Cabos, Dmitry V. Sein, Oscar Álvarez, Miguel Bruno, and Alfredo Izquierdo

Abstract. Dense water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean (EMed) is essential in sustaining the Mediterranean overturning circulation. Changes in the sources of dense water in the EMed point to changes in the circulation and the water properties of the Mediterranean Sea. Here we examine with a regional climate system model the changes in the dense water formation in the EMed through the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Our results show a shift in the dominant source of Eastern Mediterranean Deep Water (EMDW) from the Adriatic Sea to the Aegean Sea at the first half of twenty-first century. The projected dense water formation reduces by 75 % for the Adriatic Sea, 84 % for the Aegean Sea and 83 % for the Levantine Sea by the end of the century. The reduction in the intensity of deep water formation is related to hydrographic changes of surface and intermediate water, that strengthen the vertical stratification hampering the vertical mixing and thus the convection. Those changes have an impact on the water that flows through the Sicilian Strait to the Western Mediterranean and therefore on the whole Mediterranean system.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

28 Jun 2023
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Dense water formation in the eastern Mediterranean under a global warming scenario
Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Rubén Vázquez, William Cabos, Dimitry V. Sein, Oscar Álvarez, Miguel Bruno, and Alfredo Izquierdo
Ocean Sci., 19, 941–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-941-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-941-2023, 2023
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This research predicts the potential future of the Eastern Mediterranean's circulation under the...
Short summary
Global warming may strongly affect dense water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean,...
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