Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1475
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1475
04 Sep 2023
 | 04 Sep 2023

Negative Social Tipping Dynamics Resulting from and Reinforcing Earth System Destabilisation

Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, and Jesse F. Abrams

Abstract. In recent years research on positive social tipping dynamics in response to the climate crisis has produced invaluable insights. In contrast, relatively little attention has been given to the potentially negative social dynamics that might arise due to an increasingly destabilised Earth system, and how they might in turn reinforce social destabilisation dynamics and/or impede positive social change. In this paper, we identify potential negative tipping elements linked to Earth System destabilisation and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks. This first attempt to provide a first explorative conceptualisation of negative social tipping dynamics is intended to motivate further research into an under-researched area that is nonetheless crucial for our ability to respond to the climate crisis and for ensuring that positive social tipping dynamics are not averted by negative ones.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

10 Sep 2024
Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization
Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Bryan M. Spears
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1179–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, and Jesse F. Abrams

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1475', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Jan 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Viktoria Spaiser, 18 Feb 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1475', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Feb 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Viktoria Spaiser, 19 Feb 2024

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1475', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Jan 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Viktoria Spaiser, 18 Feb 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1475', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Feb 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Viktoria Spaiser, 19 Feb 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (22 Feb 2024) by Laura Pereira
AR by Viktoria Spaiser on behalf of the Authors (03 Apr 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (10 Apr 2024) by Laura Pereira
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (10 Apr 2024)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (03 Jul 2024) by Laura Pereira
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (17 Jul 2024) by Axel Kleidon (Chief editor)
AR by Viktoria Spaiser on behalf of the Authors (25 Jul 2024)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

10 Sep 2024
Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization
Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Bryan M. Spears
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1179–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, and Jesse F. Abrams
Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, and Jesse F. Abrams

Viewed

Total article views: 1,237 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
800 388 49 1,237 36 43
  • HTML: 800
  • PDF: 388
  • XML: 49
  • Total: 1,237
  • BibTeX: 36
  • EndNote: 43
Views and downloads (calculated since 04 Sep 2023)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 04 Sep 2023)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 1,204 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,204 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 11 Sep 2024
Download

The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system destabilisation and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative social tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks.