18 Jul 2023
 | 18 Jul 2023

Lahar events in the last 2,000 years from Vesuvius eruptions. Part 3: Hazard assessment over the Campanian Plain

Laura Sandri, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Antonio Costa, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Ilaria Rucco, Domenico Maria Doronzo, Marina Bisson, Roberto Gianardi, Sandro De Vita, and Roberto Sulpizio

Abstract. In this study we present a novel general methodology for Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) for lahars. We apply the methodology to perform a probabilistic assessment in the Campanian Plain (Southern Italy), focussing on syn-eruptive lahars from a reference-size eruption from Somma-Vesuvius. We take advantage of new field data relative to volcaniclastic flow deposits in the target region and recent improvements in modelling lahars. We explore the effect of uncertainty on the flow initial conditions on the invasion of lahar in the target area, by sampling coherent sets of values for the input model parameters and performing a large number of simulations. We analyse the simulation outputs to produce hazard curves, hazard maps and probability maps for the maximum flow thickness, and hazard surface and probability maps for joint thresholds in flow thickness and dynamic pressure. We believe the latter hazard products represent, on one hand, a novel product in PVHA for lahars, and, on the other hand, a useful means for impact assessment.

Laura Sandri et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1295', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Sep 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Laura Sandri, 10 Nov 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1295', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Oct 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Laura Sandri, 10 Nov 2023
  • EC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1295', Virginie Pinel, 05 Oct 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on EC1', Laura Sandri, 10 Nov 2023

Laura Sandri et al.


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Short summary
We study the lahar hazard due to the remobilization of tephra deposits from reference eruptions at Somma-Vesuvius. To this end, we rely on the results of two companion papers dealing with field data and model calibration, and run hundreds of simulations from the catchments around the target area, to capture the uncertainty on the initial parameters. We process the simulations to draw maps of the probability of overcoming thresholds in lahar flow thickness and dynamic pressure relevant for risk.