Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-114
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-114
01 Feb 2023
 | 01 Feb 2023

Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States

Corinne Hartin, Erin E. McDuffie, Karen Noiva, Marcus Sarofim, Bryan Parthum, Jeremy Martinich, Sarah Barr, Jim Neumann, Jaqueline Willwerth, and Allen Fawcett

Abstract. Evidence of the physical and economic impacts of climate change is a critical input to policy development and decision making. The potential magnitude of climate change damages, where, when, and to whom those damages may occur across the country, the types of impacts that will be most damaging, and the ability of adaptation to reduce potential risks are all important and interconnected. This study utilizes the reduced-complexity model, Framework for Evaluating Damages and Impacts (FrEDI), to rapidly assess economic and physical impacts of climate change in the contiguous United States (U.S.). Results from FrEDI show that net national damages increase overtime, with mean climate-driven damages estimated to reach $2.9 trillion USD (95 % CI: $510 billion to $12 trillion) annually by 2090. Climate-driven damages are largest for the health category, with the majority of damages in this category from the valuation estimates of premature mortality attributable to climate-driven changes in extreme temperature and air quality (O3 and PM2.5). Results from FrEDI also show that climate-driven damages vary by geographical region, with the Southeast experiencing the largest annual damages per capita (mean: $9,300 per person annually, 95 % CI: $1,800–$37,000 per person annually), whereas the smallest damages per capita are expected in the Southwest region (mean: $6,300 per person annually, 95 % CI: $840–$27,000 per person annually). Climate change impacts may also broaden existing societal inequalities, with Black or African Americans disproportionately affected by additional premature mortality from changes in air quality. This work significantly advances our understanding of the impacts from climate change to the U.S., in what U.S. regions impacts are happening, what sectors are being impacted, and which population groups being impacted the most.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

04 Oct 2023
| Highlight paper
Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States
Corinne Hartin, Erin E. McDuffie, Karen Noiva, Marcus Sarofim, Bryan Parthum, Jeremy Martinich, Sarah Barr, Jim Neumann, Jacqueline Willwerth, and Allen Fawcett
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1015–1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1015-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1015-2023, 2023
Short summary Chief editor
Corinne Hartin, Erin E. McDuffie, Karen Noiva, Marcus Sarofim, Bryan Parthum, Jeremy Martinich, Sarah Barr, Jim Neumann, Jaqueline Willwerth, and Allen Fawcett

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC ā€“ author | RC ā€“ referee | CC ā€“ community | EC ā€“ editor | CEC ā€“ chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-114', Richard Rosen, 10 Feb 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Corinne Hartin, 18 Apr 2023
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-114', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Mar 2023
    • CC2: 'Reply on RC1', Richard Rosen, 09 Mar 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Corinne Hartin, 18 Apr 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-114', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Mar 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC ā€“ author | RC ā€“ referee | CC ā€“ community | EC ā€“ editor | CEC ā€“ chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-114', Richard Rosen, 10 Feb 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Corinne Hartin, 18 Apr 2023
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-114', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Mar 2023
    • CC2: 'Reply on RC1', Richard Rosen, 09 Mar 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Corinne Hartin, 18 Apr 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-114', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Mar 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (18 Apr 2023) by Christian Franzke
AR by Corinne Hartin on behalf of the Authors (25 May 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (30 May 2023) by Christian Franzke
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (15 Jun 2023)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (03 Jul 2023)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (04 Jul 2023) by Christian Franzke
AR by Corinne Hartin on behalf of the Authors (17 Jul 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (30 Jul 2023) by Christian Franzke
AR by Corinne Hartin on behalf of the Authors (09 Aug 2023)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

04 Oct 2023
| Highlight paper
Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States
Corinne Hartin, Erin E. McDuffie, Karen Noiva, Marcus Sarofim, Bryan Parthum, Jeremy Martinich, Sarah Barr, Jim Neumann, Jacqueline Willwerth, and Allen Fawcett
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1015–1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1015-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1015-2023, 2023
Short summary Chief editor
Corinne Hartin, Erin E. McDuffie, Karen Noiva, Marcus Sarofim, Bryan Parthum, Jeremy Martinich, Sarah Barr, Jim Neumann, Jaqueline Willwerth, and Allen Fawcett
Corinne Hartin, Erin E. McDuffie, Karen Noiva, Marcus Sarofim, Bryan Parthum, Jeremy Martinich, Sarah Barr, Jim Neumann, Jaqueline Willwerth, and Allen Fawcett

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

This study assesses climate impacts on the economy and society of the USA, using a model that can downscale impacts to regional scale. The findings are thus both scientifically and policy-relevant.
Short summary
This study utilizes the reduced-complexity model, Framework for Evaluating Damages and Impacts (FrEDI), to assess the impacts from climate change in the United States, across 10,000 future probabilistic emission and socioeconomic projections. Climate-driven damages are largest for the health category, with the majority of damages in this category from the valuation estimates of premature mortality attributable to climate-driven changes in extreme temperature and air quality.