Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1075
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1075
06 Jul 2023
 | 06 Jul 2023

A model of the within-population variability of budburst in forest trees

Jianhong Lin, Daniel Berveiller, Christophe François, Heikki Hänninen, Alexandre Morfin, Gaëlle Vincent, Rui Zhang, Cyrille Rathgeber, and Nicolas Delpierre

Abstract. Spring phenology is a key indicator of temperate and boreal ecosystems’ response to climate change. To date, most phenological studies have analyzed the mean date of budburst in tree populations while overlooking the large variability of budburst among individual trees. The consequences of neglecting the within-population variability (WPV) of budburst when projecting the dynamics of tree communities are unknown. Here, we develop the first model designed to simulate the WPV of budburst in tree populations. We calibrated and evaluated the model on 48,442 budburst observations collected between 2000 and 2022 in three major temperate deciduous trees, namely, hornbeam (Carpinus betulus), oak (Quercus petraea) and chestnut (Castanea sativa). The WPV model received support for all three species, with a root mean square error of 5.6 ± 0.3 days. Retrospective simulations over 1961–2022 indicated earlier budburst as a consequence of ongoing climate warming. However, simulations revealed no significant change for the duration of budburst (DurBB, i.e., the time interval from BP20 to BP80, which respectively represent the date when 20 % and 80 % of trees in a population have reached budburst), due to a lack of significant temperature increase during DurBB in the past. This work can serve as a basis for the development of models targeting intra-population variability of other functional traits, which is of increasing interest in the context of climate change.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

31 Jan 2024
A model of the within-population variability of budburst in forest trees
Jianhong Lin, Daniel Berveiller, Christophe François, Heikki Hänninen, Alexandre Morfin, Gaëlle Vincent, Rui Zhang, Cyrille Rathgeber, and Nicolas Delpierre
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 865–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-865-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Jianhong Lin, Daniel Berveiller, Christophe François, Heikki Hänninen, Alexandre Morfin, Gaëlle Vincent, Rui Zhang, Cyrille Rathgeber, and Nicolas Delpierre

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1075', Marc Peaucelle, 24 Aug 2023
    • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1075', Jianhong Lin, 19 Oct 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1075', Yongshuo H. Fu, 18 Sep 2023
    • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1075', Jianhong Lin, 19 Oct 2023
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1075', Jianhong Lin, 19 Oct 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1075', Marc Peaucelle, 24 Aug 2023
    • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1075', Jianhong Lin, 19 Oct 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1075', Yongshuo H. Fu, 18 Sep 2023
    • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1075', Jianhong Lin, 19 Oct 2023
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1075', Jianhong Lin, 19 Oct 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Jianhong Lin on behalf of the Authors (19 Oct 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes 
EF by Sarah Buchmann (19 Oct 2023)  Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (20 Oct 2023) by Hans Verbeeck
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (23 Oct 2023)
RR by Marc Peaucelle (07 Nov 2023)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (20 Nov 2023) by Hans Verbeeck
AR by Jianhong Lin on behalf of the Authors (25 Nov 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (28 Nov 2023) by Hans Verbeeck
RR by Marc Peaucelle (04 Dec 2023)
ED: Publish as is (19 Dec 2023) by Hans Verbeeck
AR by Jianhong Lin on behalf of the Authors (20 Dec 2023)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

31 Jan 2024
A model of the within-population variability of budburst in forest trees
Jianhong Lin, Daniel Berveiller, Christophe François, Heikki Hänninen, Alexandre Morfin, Gaëlle Vincent, Rui Zhang, Cyrille Rathgeber, and Nicolas Delpierre
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 865–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-865-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Jianhong Lin, Daniel Berveiller, Christophe François, Heikki Hänninen, Alexandre Morfin, Gaëlle Vincent, Rui Zhang, Cyrille Rathgeber, and Nicolas Delpierre

Data sets

the data for WPV model for budburst Eric Dufrene, Nicolas Delpierre, Gaëlle Vincent, Alexandre Morfin, Daniel Berveiller, and Jianhong Lin https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7962840

Model code and software

code for wpv model (model simulating the within-population of budburst in tree populations) Lin Jianhong https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7957944

Jianhong Lin, Daniel Berveiller, Christophe François, Heikki Hänninen, Alexandre Morfin, Gaëlle Vincent, Rui Zhang, Cyrille Rathgeber, and Nicolas Delpierre

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Short summary
Currently, the high variability of budburst between individual trees is overlooked. The consequences of this neglect when projecting the dynamics and functioning of tree communities are unknown. Here we develop the first process-oriented model to describe the difference in budburst dates between individual trees in plant populations. Beyond budburst, the model framework provides a basis for studying the dynamics of phenological traits under climate change, from the individual to the community.