Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1451
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1451
 
03 Jan 2023
03 Jan 2023
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).

Viticulture extension in response to global climate change drivers – lessons from the past and future projections

Joel Guiot1, Nicolas Bernigaud1, Alberte Bondeau2, Laurent Bouby3, and Wolfgang Cramer2 Joel Guiot et al.
  • 1Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France
  • 2Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Aix-en-Provence, France
  • 3ISEM, Université Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Montpellier, France

Abstract. The potential areal extent of agricultural crops is sensitive to climate change and its underlying drivers. To distinguish between the drivers of past variations in the Mediterranean viticulture extension since Early Antiquity and improve projections for the future, we propose an original attribution method based on an emulation of coupled climate and ecosystem models. The emulator connects the potential productivity of grapevines to global climate drivers, notably orbital parameters, solar and volcanic activities, demography and greenhouse gas concentrations. We found that variations in potential area for viticulture during the last three millennia in the Mediterranean Basin were mainly due to volcanic activity, while the effect of solar activity and orbital changes were negligible. In the future, as expected, the dominating factor is the increase in greenhouse gases, causing significantly drier conditions and thus major difficulties for viticulture in Spain and North Africa. These constraints will concern significant areas of the Southern Mediterranean Basin when global warming exceeds +2 °C above pre-industrial conditions. Our experiments showed that even an intense volcanic activity comparable to that of the Samalas – sometimes considered as the starting point of the Little Ice Age at the mid 13th century - would not slow down this decline in viticulture extension in the southern margin of the Mediterranean area.

Joel Guiot et al.

Status: open (until 28 Feb 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1451', Anonymous Referee #1, 20 Jan 2023 reply

Joel Guiot et al.

Joel Guiot et al.

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Short summary
In the Mediterranean, the vine is an important part of the economy since Roman times. Viticulture expanded within Gaul during warmer climate phased and regressed during cold periods. Now it is spreading strongly to northern Europe, and is suffering from drought in North Africa, Spain and Southern Italy. This will worsen if global warming exceeds 2 °C above the preindustrial period. While the driver of this is increased greenhouse gases, we show that the main past forcing was volcanic activity.