Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1438
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1438
02 Jan 2023
 | 02 Jan 2023

Large Uncertainty in Observed Meridional Stream Function Tropical Expansion

Daniel Baldassare, Thomas Reichler, Piret Plink-Björklund, and Jacob Slawson

Abstract. Recent tropical expansion rate estimates vary substantially, as a multitude of methods and reanalysis datasets yield conflicting results. Among the many methods of estimating the tropical width, the meridional stream function 500 hPa zero-crossing is the most widely used, as it is directly related to the poleward edge of the Hadley Cell (HC). Other common metrics use atmospheric phenomena associated with the HC as a proxy, for instance the zonal surface wind zero-crossing. As each of these metrics require different data, each with varying error, the level of data-driven uncertainty differs between each metric. While previous work has analyzed the statistical and dynamical relationships between metrics, to date no study has quantified and compared the uncertainty in different HC metrics. In this study, we use ERA5 ensemble members, which include small perturbations in atmospheric variables based on the data error, to quantify the uncertainty associated with six commonly used HC metrics as well as the range of their trend estimates. In the Northern Hemisphere, the tropical expansion rate calculated by the stream function is roughly 0.05 degrees per decade, while the Southern Hemisphere rate is 0.2 degrees per decade. Of the six metrics, only the meridional stream function and precipitation minus evaporation have substantial uncertainties. The stream function errors are large due to uncertainty in the underlying meridional wind data and the presence of large regions of near-neutral circulation at the poleward edge of the tropics. These errors have decreased in recent decades because of improvements in the assimilated observations. Despite these improvements, we recommended using the zonal surface wind zero crossing to analyze tropical extent trends in reanalyses. This is particularly important in the Northern Hemisphere, before the year 2000, and when studying individual seasons other than winter.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

22 Jun 2023
Large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream function
Daniel Baldassare, Thomas Reichler, Piret Plink-Björklund, and Jacob Slawson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 531–541, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-531-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Daniel Baldassare, Thomas Reichler, Piret Plink-Björklund, and Jacob Slawson

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1438', Daniel Baldassare, 04 Jan 2023
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1438', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1438', Anonymous Referee #2, 03 Feb 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1438', Anonymous Referee #3, 28 Feb 2023
  • AC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1438', Daniel Baldassare, 08 Mar 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1438', Daniel Baldassare, 04 Jan 2023
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1438', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1438', Anonymous Referee #2, 03 Feb 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1438', Anonymous Referee #3, 28 Feb 2023
  • AC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1438', Daniel Baldassare, 08 Mar 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Daniel Baldassare on behalf of the Authors (14 Mar 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (01 Apr 2023) by Nili Harnik
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (06 Apr 2023) by Nili Harnik
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (06 Apr 2023) by Nili Harnik
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (15 Apr 2023)
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (04 May 2023)
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (07 May 2023) by Nili Harnik
AR by Daniel Baldassare on behalf of the Authors (18 May 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (24 May 2023) by Nili Harnik
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (24 May 2023)
ED: Publish as is (28 May 2023) by Nili Harnik
AR by Daniel Baldassare on behalf of the Authors (30 May 2023)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

22 Jun 2023
Large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream function
Daniel Baldassare, Thomas Reichler, Piret Plink-Björklund, and Jacob Slawson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 531–541, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-531-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Daniel Baldassare, Thomas Reichler, Piret Plink-Björklund, and Jacob Slawson

Data sets

ERA5 Accessed from Copernicus Hersbach et al., 2020 https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu

Model code and software

ERA5 Analysis Python Code Daniel Baldassare https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7430530

Daniel Baldassare, Thomas Reichler, Piret Plink-Björklund, and Jacob Slawson

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Latest update: 18 Sep 2024
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Using ensemble members from the ERA5 reanalysis, the most widely used method for estimating tropical width trends, the meridional stream function, was found to have large error, particularly in the Northern hemisphere and in the summer, because of weak gradients at the tropical edge and poor data quality. Another method, using the latitude where the surface wind switches from westerly to easterly, was found to have lower error and is recommended for future studies.