Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-96
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-96
 
04 Apr 2022
04 Apr 2022

Inter–annual global carbon cycle variations linked to atmospheric circulation variability

Na Li1, Sebastian Sippel2, Alexander Winkler1, Miguel D. Mahecha3, Markus Reichstein1, and Ana Bastos1 Na Li et al.
  • 1Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Germany
  • 2Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, and Seminar for Statistics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
  • 3Remote Sensing Center for Earth System Research, Leipzig University, Germany

Abstract. One of the least understood temporal–scales of global carbon cycle (C–cycle) dynamics is its inter–annual variability (IAV). This variability is mainly driven by variations in the local climatic drivers of terrestrial ecosystem activity, which in turn are controlled by large–scale modes of atmospheric variability. Here, we quantify the fraction of C–cycle IAV that is explained by large–scale atmospheric circulation variability, which is quantified by spatio–temporal sea level pressure (SLP) fields. CO2 variability is diagnosed from the detrended atmospheric CO2 growth rate and the land CO2 sink from different datasets in the global carbon budget. We use a regularized linear regression model, a statistical learning technique, apt to deal with the large number of atmospheric circulation predictors (p ≥ 800, each representing one pixel–based time–series of SLP anomalies) in a relatively short observed record (n < 60 years). We show that boreal winter and spring SLP anomalies allow predicting IAV in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and of the global land sink, with Pearson correlations between reference and predicted values as high as 0.70–0.84 with boreal winter SLP anomalies. This is comparable or higher than that of a similar model using 15 traditional teleconnection indices as predictors. The coefficient patterns of the model based on SLP fields show a predominant role of the tropical Pacific and over Southeast Asia extending to Australia, corresponding to the regions associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability. We also identify one region in the western Pacific, roughly corresponding to the West Pacific pattern.

We further evaluate the influence of the time–series length on the predictability of IAV and find that reliable estimates of C–cycle IAV can be obtained from records of ~30–60 years. For shorter time–series (n < 30 years), however, conclusions about CO2 IAV patterns and drivers need to be evaluated with caution. Overall, our study illustrates a new data–driven and flexible approach to model the relationship between large–scale atmospheric circulation variations and C–cycle variability at global and regional scales, complementing the traditional use of teleconnection indices.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

07 Nov 2022
Interannual global carbon cycle variations linked to atmospheric circulation variability
Na Li, Sebastian Sippel, Alexander J. Winkler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Markus Reichstein, and Ana Bastos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1505–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022, 2022
Short summary

Na Li et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (12 Jul 2022) by Kira Rehfeld
AR by Na Li on behalf of the Authors (23 Aug 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (09 Sep 2022) by Kira Rehfeld
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (12 Sep 2022)
RR by Ingeborg Levin (26 Sep 2022)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (30 Sep 2022) by Kira Rehfeld
AR by Na Li on behalf of the Authors (08 Oct 2022)  Author's response    Manuscript

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

07 Nov 2022
Interannual global carbon cycle variations linked to atmospheric circulation variability
Na Li, Sebastian Sippel, Alexander J. Winkler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Markus Reichstein, and Ana Bastos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1505–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022, 2022
Short summary

Na Li et al.

Na Li et al.

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Quantifying the imprint of large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics and associated carbon cycle responses is key to improve our understanding of carbon cycle dynamics. Using a statistical model that relies of spatio-temporal sea level pressure as a proxy for large-scale atmospheric circulation, we quantify the fraction of interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and the land CO2 sink that are driven by atmospheric circulation variability.