Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-89
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-89
 
28 Mar 2022
28 Mar 2022

Insignificant but robust decrease of ENSO predictability in an equilibrium warmer climate

Yiyu Zheng1, Maria Rugenstein2, Patrick Pieper1, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga1, and Johanna Baehr1 Yiyu Zheng et al.
  • 1Institute of Oceanography, The Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
  • 2Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA

Abstract. Responses of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to global warming remain uncertain, which challenges ENSO forecasts in a warming climate. We investigate changes in ENSO characteristics and predictability in idealized simulations with quadrupled CO2 forcing from seven general circulation models. Comparing the warmer climate to control simulations, ENSO variability weakens, with the neutral state lasts longer, while active ENSO states last shorter and skew to favor the La Niña state. Six-month persistence-assessed ENSO predictability slightly reduces in five models and increases in two models under the warming condition. While the overall changes in ENSO predictability are insignificant, we find significant relationships between changes in predictability and intensity, duration and skewness of the three individual ENSO states. The maximal contribution to changes in the predictability of El Niño, La Niña and neutral states stems from changes in skewness and events' duration. Our findings show that a robust and significant decrease in ENSO characteristics does not imply a similar change in ENSO predictability in a warmer climate. This could be due to model deficiencies in ENSO dynamics and limitations in persistence model when predicting ENSO.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

17 Nov 2022
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates
Yiyu Zheng, Maria Rugenstein, Patrick Pieper, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, and Johanna Baehr
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1611–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1611-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1611-2022, 2022
Short summary

Yiyu Zheng et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-89', Anonymous Referee #1, 31 May 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Yiyu Zheng, 25 Aug 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-89', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Aug 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Yiyu Zheng, 25 Aug 2022
  • AC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-89', Yiyu Zheng, 25 Aug 2022

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-89', Anonymous Referee #1, 31 May 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Yiyu Zheng, 25 Aug 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-89', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Aug 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Yiyu Zheng, 25 Aug 2022
  • AC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-89', Yiyu Zheng, 25 Aug 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (29 Aug 2022) by Anders Levermann
AR by Yiyu Zheng on behalf of the Authors (02 Sep 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (13 Sep 2022) by Anders Levermann
ED: Publish as is (24 Oct 2022) by Anders Levermann

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

17 Nov 2022
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates
Yiyu Zheng, Maria Rugenstein, Patrick Pieper, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, and Johanna Baehr
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1611–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1611-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1611-2022, 2022
Short summary

Yiyu Zheng et al.

Data sets

Dataset associated with "Insignificant but robust decrease of ENSO predictability in an equilibrium warmer climate" Zheng, Yiyu; Rugenstein, Maria; Pieper, Patrick; Beobide-Arsuaga, Goratz; Baehr, Johanna http://dx.doi.org/10.25675/10217/234545

Yiyu Zheng et al.

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
ENSO is one of the dominant climatic phenomena in the equatorial Pacific. Understanding and predicting how ENSO might change in a warmer climate is both societally and scientifically important. We use thousand-year-long simulations from seven climate models to analyze ENSO in an idealized stable climate. We show that ENSO will be weaker and last shorter under the warming, while the skill of ENSO prediction will unlikely to change.