Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-86
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-86
12 Apr 2022
 | 12 Apr 2022

Variability in Antarctic Surface Climatology Across Regional Climate Models and Reanalysis Datasets

Jeremy Carter, Amber Leeson, Andrew Orr, Christoph Kittel, and Jan Melchior van Wessem

Abstract. Regional climate models (RCMs) and reanalysis datasets provide valuable information for assessing the vulnerability of ice shelves to collapse over Antarctica, which is important for 2100 global sea level rise estimates. Within this context, this paper examines variability in snowfall, near-surface air temperature and melt across products from the MetUM, RACMO and MAR RCMs, as well as the ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis datasets. Seasonal and trend decomposition using Loess (STL) is applied to split the monthly time series at each model grid-cell into trend, seasonal and residual components. Significant, systematic differences between outputs are shown for all variables in the mean and seasonal/monthly standard deviations, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. It is suggested that differences in the atmospheric dynamics, parametrisation, tuning and surface schemes between models together contribute more significantly to large-scale variability than differences in the driving data, resolution, domain specification, ice sheet mask, digital elevation model and boundary conditions. Despite significant systematic differences, high temporal correlations are found for snowfall and near-surface air temperature across all products at fine spatial scales. For melt, only moderate correlation exists at fine spatial scales between different RCMs and low correlation between RCM and reanalysis outputs. Root mean square deviations (RMSDs) between all outputs in the monthly time series for each variable are shown to be significant at fine spatial scales relative to the magnitude of annual deviations. Correcting for systematic differences results in significant reductions of RMSDs, suggesting the importance of observations and further development of bias-correction techniques.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

23 Sep 2022
Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets
Jeremy Carter, Amber Leeson, Andrew Orr, Christoph Kittel, and J. Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 16, 3815–3841, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Jeremy Carter, Amber Leeson, Andrew Orr, Christoph Kittel, and Jan Melchior van Wessem

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-86', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 May 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jeremy Carter, 05 Jul 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Jeremy Carter, 08 Jul 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-86', Rajashree Datta, 27 May 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Jeremy Carter, 06 Jul 2022

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-86', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 May 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jeremy Carter, 05 Jul 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Jeremy Carter, 08 Jul 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-86', Rajashree Datta, 27 May 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Jeremy Carter, 06 Jul 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (19 Jul 2022) by Thomas Mölg
AR by Jeremy Carter on behalf of the Authors (21 Jul 2022)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (01 Aug 2022) by Thomas Mölg
AR by Jeremy Carter on behalf of the Authors (09 Aug 2022)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

23 Sep 2022
Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets
Jeremy Carter, Amber Leeson, Andrew Orr, Christoph Kittel, and J. Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 16, 3815–3841, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Jeremy Carter, Amber Leeson, Andrew Orr, Christoph Kittel, and Jan Melchior van Wessem

Data sets

Variability in Antarctic Surface Climatology Across Regional Climate Models and Reanalysis Datasets Carter, Jeremy ; Leeson, Amber; Orr, Andrew; Kittel, Christoph; van Wessem, Melchior https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6367850

Model code and software

Jez-Carter/Antarctica_Climate_Variability: 0.1.0 Carter, Jeremy https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6375205

Jeremy Carter, Amber Leeson, Andrew Orr, Christoph Kittel, and Jan Melchior van Wessem

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Latest update: 18 Sep 2024
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Short summary
Climate models provide valuable information for studying processes such as the collapse of ice shelves over Antarctica, which impacts estimates of sea level rise. This paper examines variability across climate simulations over Antarctica for fields including snowfall, temperature and melt. Significant, systematic differences between outputs are found, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results are important for future impact assessments and model development.