the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Joint probability analysis of storm surge and wave caused by tropical cyclone for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan Island of China
Zhang Haixia
Cheng Meng
Fang Weihua
Abstract. Quantitatively estimating combined storm surge and wave hazards provides scientific guidance for disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief in coastal cities. The marginal and copula functions are preferred based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test pass rate, and the relationship between storm surge and wave is quantitatively evaluated using the optimal function, then the bivariate risk probabilities are estimated. The results show that the generalized extreme value function and Gumbel copula function are suitable for fitting the marginal and joint distribution characteristics of the surge height and significant wave height in this study area, respectively. Second, the surge height shows an increasing trend closer to the coastline, and the significant wave height is higher further from the coastline. Third, when one variable is constant, the simultaneous, joint, and conditional risk probability tends to decrease as the other variable increases. In actual engineering design, improving the protection standard can effectively reduce the bivariate risk probability. In addition, we can estimate the optimal design criteria for different joint return periods by the constraint condition and objective functions. This study shows that the bivariate copula function can effectively evaluate the risk probability for different scenarios, which provides a reference for optimizing engineering protection standards.
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Notice on discussion status
The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
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Preprint
(12026 KB)
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
- Preprint
(12026 KB) - BibTeX
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- Final revised paper
Journal article(s) based on this preprint
Zhang Haixia et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-847', Francesco Serinaldi, 26 Oct 2022
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-847/egusphere-2022-847-RC1-supplement.pdf
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RC2: 'Reply on RC1', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Nov 2022
Title: Joint probability analysis of storm surge and wave caused by tropical cyclone for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan Island of China
Authors: Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng and Fang Waihua
The manuscript describes the analysis of the joint probability of storm surge and the significant wave height caused by tropical cyclones. The analysis was applied to a specific case study (Eastern coast of the Leizhou Penisula and Hainan Island of China).
Although the approach can be interesting, the paper presents several shortcomings related both to the methodology and to the presentation of results. The approach adopted for the description of the analysis is not very detailed. In particular, the description of the numerical models does not allow for an adequate understanding of their performance and the reliability of the results. More details about the setup of the numerical models and the validation result should be provided. Moreover, there is a lack of physical explanation of the phenomena simulated and related results.
Overall, the paper, although interesting, cannot be published in its present form.
Specific comments
How many tropical cyclones were used in this study? (line 95: 87, line 109: 119, line 119: 102).
To understand the result of the numerical models, the authors should provide a depth map of the study area.
The authors do not provide the criteria adopted for the generation of the unstructured grid. Were there any convergence tests?
How were the boundary conditions of the numerical models set?
Which are the governing equations of the two models? Why were these models selected?
Provide more details about the validation of the numerical results (station location, comparison of the storm surge and the significant wave height, performance parameters, etc.).
Figure 4. On the East side of Hainan Island, the surge height increased considerably. Is there some physical explanation for such phenomena?
Figure 5: The significant wave height is very high in the offshore region. Is there some physical explanation for such phenomena? It is suggested to consider the effect of the wave breaking.
It would seem that the effect of the sea level rising due to storm surge was not considered in the numerical simulation conducted with SWAN. If this is true, in the intermedia and shallow water the results are likely to be unreliable.
Minor point
Figure 1. Add the location of stations used for the validation of the models.
Triangular network -> triangular grid.
Table 1. Add the definitions of u and v.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-847-RC2 -
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Weihua Fang, 24 Jan 2023
Dear Reviewers.
Thank you very much for your time in reviewing the manuscript and your detailed feedback. We have provided explanations for these comments and have carefully revised the manuscript. The following are our point-to-point responses to the reviewer's comments.
Please see the attachment for details.
Sincerely,
The Authors
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AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Weihua Fang, 24 Jan 2023
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Weihua Fang, 24 Jan 2023
Dear Reviewers.
Thank you very much for your time in reviewing the manuscript and your detailed feedback. We have provided explanations for these comments and have carefully revised the manuscript. The following are our point-to-point responses to the reviewer's comments.
Please see the attachment for details.
Sincerely,
The Authors
-
RC2: 'Reply on RC1', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Nov 2022
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
-
RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-847', Francesco Serinaldi, 26 Oct 2022
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-847/egusphere-2022-847-RC1-supplement.pdf
-
RC2: 'Reply on RC1', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Nov 2022
Title: Joint probability analysis of storm surge and wave caused by tropical cyclone for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan Island of China
Authors: Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng and Fang Waihua
The manuscript describes the analysis of the joint probability of storm surge and the significant wave height caused by tropical cyclones. The analysis was applied to a specific case study (Eastern coast of the Leizhou Penisula and Hainan Island of China).
Although the approach can be interesting, the paper presents several shortcomings related both to the methodology and to the presentation of results. The approach adopted for the description of the analysis is not very detailed. In particular, the description of the numerical models does not allow for an adequate understanding of their performance and the reliability of the results. More details about the setup of the numerical models and the validation result should be provided. Moreover, there is a lack of physical explanation of the phenomena simulated and related results.
Overall, the paper, although interesting, cannot be published in its present form.
Specific comments
How many tropical cyclones were used in this study? (line 95: 87, line 109: 119, line 119: 102).
To understand the result of the numerical models, the authors should provide a depth map of the study area.
The authors do not provide the criteria adopted for the generation of the unstructured grid. Were there any convergence tests?
How were the boundary conditions of the numerical models set?
Which are the governing equations of the two models? Why were these models selected?
Provide more details about the validation of the numerical results (station location, comparison of the storm surge and the significant wave height, performance parameters, etc.).
Figure 4. On the East side of Hainan Island, the surge height increased considerably. Is there some physical explanation for such phenomena?
Figure 5: The significant wave height is very high in the offshore region. Is there some physical explanation for such phenomena? It is suggested to consider the effect of the wave breaking.
It would seem that the effect of the sea level rising due to storm surge was not considered in the numerical simulation conducted with SWAN. If this is true, in the intermedia and shallow water the results are likely to be unreliable.
Minor point
Figure 1. Add the location of stations used for the validation of the models.
Triangular network -> triangular grid.
Table 1. Add the definitions of u and v.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-847-RC2 -
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Weihua Fang, 24 Jan 2023
Dear Reviewers.
Thank you very much for your time in reviewing the manuscript and your detailed feedback. We have provided explanations for these comments and have carefully revised the manuscript. The following are our point-to-point responses to the reviewer's comments.
Please see the attachment for details.
Sincerely,
The Authors
-
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Weihua Fang, 24 Jan 2023
-
AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Weihua Fang, 24 Jan 2023
Dear Reviewers.
Thank you very much for your time in reviewing the manuscript and your detailed feedback. We have provided explanations for these comments and have carefully revised the manuscript. The following are our point-to-point responses to the reviewer's comments.
Please see the attachment for details.
Sincerely,
The Authors
-
RC2: 'Reply on RC1', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Nov 2022
Peer review completion
Journal article(s) based on this preprint
Zhang Haixia et al.
Zhang Haixia et al.
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
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