Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-82
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-82
 
23 Mar 2022
23 Mar 2022

Evidence of Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models

Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, and Peter Cox Isobel Parry et al.
  • College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, EX4 4QE

Abstract. Amazon forest dieback is seen as a potential tipping point under climate change. These concerns are partly based-on an early coupled climate-carbon cycle simulation, that produced unusually strong drying and warming in Amazonia. In contrast, the 5th generation Earth System Models (CMIP5) produced few examples of Amazon dieback under climate change. Here we examine results from seven 6th generation models (CMIP6) which include vegetation dynamics, and in some cases interactive forest fires. Although these models typically project increases in area-mean forest carbon across Amazonia under CO2-induced climate change, five of the seven models also produce abrupt reductions in vegetation carbon which indicate localised dieback events. The Northern South America region (NSA), which contains most of the rainforest, is especially vulnerable in the models. These dieback events, some of which are mediated by fire, are preceded by an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in near surface temperature, which is consistent with more extreme dry seasons. Based-on the ensemble mean of the detected dieback events we estimate that 7 +/-5 % of the NSA region will experience abrupt downward shifts in vegetation carbon per °C of global warming above 1.5 °C.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

24 Nov 2022
| Highlight paper
Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1667–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022, 2022
Short summary

Isobel Parry et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-82', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Apr 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Isobel Parry, 20 Jun 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-82', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 May 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Isobel Parry, 20 Jun 2022
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-82', Anonymous Referee #3, 16 May 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC3', Isobel Parry, 20 Jun 2022
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-82', Félicien Meunier, 18 May 2022

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-82', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Apr 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Isobel Parry, 20 Jun 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-82', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 May 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Isobel Parry, 20 Jun 2022
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-82', Anonymous Referee #3, 16 May 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC3', Isobel Parry, 20 Jun 2022
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-82', Félicien Meunier, 18 May 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (05 Jul 2022) by Somnath Baidya Roy
AR by Isobel Parry on behalf of the Authors (29 Jul 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (08 Aug 2022) by Somnath Baidya Roy
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (19 Aug 2022)
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (21 Aug 2022)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (22 Aug 2022) by Somnath Baidya Roy
AR by Isobel Parry on behalf of the Authors (31 Aug 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (09 Sep 2022) by Somnath Baidya Roy

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

24 Nov 2022
| Highlight paper
Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1667–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022, 2022
Short summary

Isobel Parry et al.

Isobel Parry et al.

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

The health of the amazon ecosystem is a key indicator of the health of our planet. Hence, the editor feels that this paper will attract the attention of a broad audience and the media.
Short summary
Abrupt dieback of the Amazon rainforest resulting from drying under global warming has long been recognised as a potential future tipping point. The latest generation of climate models show that multiple localised abrupt shifts can occur in the vegetation carbon under increased levels of CO2 . Many detected abrupt shifts are proceeded by an increase in the temperature seasonal cycle amplitude, offering a promising early warning signal for Amazon forest dieback.