Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-742
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-742
09 Sep 2022
 | 09 Sep 2022

Effects of fire danger indexes and land cover on fire growth in Peru

Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo

Abstract. Statistical analyses of wildfire growth are rarely undertaken, particularly in South America. In this study, we describe a simple and intuitive difference equation model of wildfire growth that uses a spread parameter to control the radial speed of the modeled fire and an extinguish parameter to control the rate at which the burning perimeter becomes inactive. Using data from the GlobFire project, we estimate these two parameters for 1003 large, multi-day fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020. For four fire-prone ecoregions within Peru, a set of 18 generalized linear models are fit for each parameter that use fire danger indexes and land cover covariates. Akaike weights are used to identify the best-approximating model and quantify model uncertainty. We find that, in most cases, increased spread rates and extinguish rates are positively associated with fire danger indexes. When fire danger indexes are included in the models, the spread component is usually the best choice. We also find that forest cover is negatively associated with spread rates and extinguish rates in tropical forests, and that anthropogenic cover is negatively associated with spread rates in xeric ecoregions. We explore potential applications of this model to wildfire risk assessment and burned area forecasting.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

24 Jul 2023
Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
Short summary

Harry Podschwit et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-742', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Oct 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Harry Podschwit, 26 Mar 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-742', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Jan 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Harry Podschwit, 26 Mar 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-742', Anonymous Referee #3, 07 Feb 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC3', Harry Podschwit, 26 Mar 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-742', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Oct 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Harry Podschwit, 26 Mar 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-742', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Jan 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Harry Podschwit, 26 Mar 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-742', Anonymous Referee #3, 07 Feb 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC3', Harry Podschwit, 26 Mar 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (17 Apr 2023) by Kirsten Thonicke
AR by Harry Podschwit on behalf of the Authors (15 May 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (01 Jun 2023) by Kirsten Thonicke
ED: Publish as is (07 Jun 2023) by Ricardo Trigo (Executive editor)
AR by Harry Podschwit on behalf of the Authors (20 Jun 2023)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

24 Jul 2023
Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
Short summary

Harry Podschwit et al.

Harry Podschwit et al.

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables, and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.