Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-579
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-579
27 Jul 2022
 | 27 Jul 2022

Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton variance

Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger

Abstract. Multiple studies conducted with Earth System Models suggest that anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Light limited regions are projected to become more productive and nutrient limited regions less productive. Anthropogenic climate change can influence not only the mean state, but also the variance around the mean state, yet little is known about how variance in marine phytoplankton will change with time. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on internal variability in marine phytoplankton biomass from 1920 to 2100 using the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble (CESM1-LE). We find a significant decrease in the internal variance of global phytoplankton carbon biomass under a high emission (RCP8.5) scenario, with heterogeneous regional trends. Decreasing variance in biomass is most apparent in the subpolar North Atlantic and North Pacific. In these high-latitude regions, zooplankton grazing acts as a top-down control in reducing internal variance in phytoplankton biomass, with bottom-up controls (e.g., light, nutrients) having only a small effect on biomass variance. Grazing-driven declines in phytoplankton variance are also apparent in the biogeochemically critical regions of the Southern Ocean and the Equatorial Pacific. Our results suggest that climate mitigation and adaptation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes (e.g., fisheries) should also consider changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming, particularly on regional scales.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

10 Nov 2023
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability
Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger
Biogeosciences, 20, 4477–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, 2023
Short summary

Geneviève W. Elsworth et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-579', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Aug 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Geneviève Elsworth, 13 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-579', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Oct 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Geneviève Elsworth, 13 Jan 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-579', Nicholas Bock, 28 Oct 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Geneviève Elsworth, 13 Jan 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-579', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Aug 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Geneviève Elsworth, 13 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-579', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Oct 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Geneviève Elsworth, 13 Jan 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-579', Nicholas Bock, 28 Oct 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Geneviève Elsworth, 13 Jan 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (31 Jan 2023) by Ciavatta Stefano
AR by Geneviève Elsworth on behalf of the Authors (03 Feb 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (06 Feb 2023) by Ciavatta Stefano
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (28 Mar 2023)
RR by Nicholas Bock (28 Mar 2023)
RR by Anonymous Referee #5 (09 Apr 2023)
RR by Anonymous Referee #6 (14 Apr 2023)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (24 Apr 2023) by Ciavatta Stefano
AR by Geneviève Elsworth on behalf of the Authors (30 May 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (05 Jun 2023) by Ciavatta Stefano
AR by Geneviève Elsworth on behalf of the Authors (16 Aug 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (22 Aug 2023) by Ciavatta Stefano
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (24 Aug 2023)
RR by Anonymous Referee #6 (11 Sep 2023)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (12 Sep 2023) by Ciavatta Stefano
AR by Geneviève Elsworth on behalf of the Authors (19 Sep 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (22 Sep 2023) by Ciavatta Stefano
AR by Geneviève Elsworth on behalf of the Authors (24 Sep 2023)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

10 Nov 2023
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability
Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger
Biogeosciences, 20, 4477–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, 2023
Short summary

Geneviève W. Elsworth et al.

Geneviève W. Elsworth et al.

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Latest update: 10 Nov 2023
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on marine phytoplankton variance using an Earth System Model ensemble, identifying a decline in global phytoplankton biomass variance with warming. Our results suggest that climate mitigation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes should also consider changes in phytoplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming.