Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-579
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-579
27 Jul 2022
 | 27 Jul 2022

Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton variance

Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger

Abstract. Multiple studies conducted with Earth System Models suggest that anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Light limited regions are projected to become more productive and nutrient limited regions less productive. Anthropogenic climate change can influence not only the mean state, but also the variance around the mean state, yet little is known about how variance in marine phytoplankton will change with time. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on internal variability in marine phytoplankton biomass from 1920 to 2100 using the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble (CESM1-LE). We find a significant decrease in the internal variance of global phytoplankton carbon biomass under a high emission (RCP8.5) scenario, with heterogeneous regional trends. Decreasing variance in biomass is most apparent in the subpolar North Atlantic and North Pacific. In these high-latitude regions, zooplankton grazing acts as a top-down control in reducing internal variance in phytoplankton biomass, with bottom-up controls (e.g., light, nutrients) having only a small effect on biomass variance. Grazing-driven declines in phytoplankton variance are also apparent in the biogeochemically critical regions of the Southern Ocean and the Equatorial Pacific. Our results suggest that climate mitigation and adaptation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes (e.g., fisheries) should also consider changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming, particularly on regional scales.

Geneviève W. Elsworth et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-579', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Aug 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Geneviève Elsworth, 13 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-579', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Oct 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Geneviève Elsworth, 13 Jan 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-579', Nicholas Bock, 28 Oct 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Geneviève Elsworth, 13 Jan 2023

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-579', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Aug 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Geneviève Elsworth, 13 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-579', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Oct 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Geneviève Elsworth, 13 Jan 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-579', Nicholas Bock, 28 Oct 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Geneviève Elsworth, 13 Jan 2023

Geneviève W. Elsworth et al.

Geneviève W. Elsworth et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 805 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
554 228 23 805 68 9 13
  • HTML: 554
  • PDF: 228
  • XML: 23
  • Total: 805
  • Supplement: 68
  • BibTeX: 9
  • EndNote: 13
Views and downloads (calculated since 27 Jul 2022)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 27 Jul 2022)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 804 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 804 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 01 Oct 2023
Download
Short summary
Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on marine phytoplankton variance using an Earth System Model ensemble, identifying a decline in global phytoplankton biomass variance with warming. Our results suggest that climate mitigation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes should also consider changes in phytoplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming.