Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-570
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-570
 
01 Aug 2022
01 Aug 2022

Internal climate variability and spatial temperature correlations during the past 2000 years

Pepijn Bakker1, Hugues Goosse2, and Didier M. Roche1,3 Pepijn Bakker et al.
  • 1Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands
  • 2Earth and Life Institute (ELI), UCLouvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
  • 3Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

Abstract. The spatio-temporal structure of natural climate variability has to be taken into account when unraveling observed climatic changes and simulate future climate change. However, based on the comparison of temperature reconstructions and climate model simulations covering the past two millenia, it has been argued that climate models are biased. They would simulate too little temporal temperature variability and too high correlations between temperature time series from different continents. One of the proposed causes is the lack of internal climate variability in climate models on centennial time scales, for instance variability related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

We present a perturbed-parameter ensemble with the iLOVECLIM earth system model containing various levels of AMOC-related internal climate variability to investigate the effect on the spatio-temporal temperature variability structure. The model ensemble shows that indeed enhanced AMOC variability leads to more continental-scale temperature variability, but it also increases the spatio-temporal temperature correlations between different continents. However, combining the iLOVECLIM results with CMIP5 model results and various PAGES-2K temperature field reconstructions, we find that neither model results or reconstructions are robust. We show overall agreement for the magnitude of continental temperature variability in models and reconstructions, but both the simulated and the reconstructed ranges are large. This is even more true when considering higher order metrices like inter-continental temperature correlations or temperature variability land-sea contrasts. For such metrices, uncertainties in both model results and temperature reconstructions are so large that they hamper our ability to constrain simulated spatio-temporal structure of centennial temperature variability. As a result, we cannot determine the importance of AMOC variability for the climatic evolution over the past two millenia.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

24 Nov 2022
Internal climate variability and spatial temperature correlations during the past 2000 years
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
Short summary

Pepijn Bakker et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-570', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Aug 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-570', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Sep 2022

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-570', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Aug 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-570', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Sep 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (01 Oct 2022) by Jürg Luterbacher
AR by Pepijn Bakker on behalf of the Authors (01 Oct 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (04 Oct 2022) by Jürg Luterbacher
AR by Pepijn Bakker on behalf of the Authors (04 Oct 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (05 Oct 2022) by Jürg Luterbacher
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (05 Oct 2022)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (17 Oct 2022)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (17 Oct 2022) by Jürg Luterbacher
AR by Pepijn Bakker on behalf of the Authors (17 Oct 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (30 Oct 2022) by Jürg Luterbacher

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

24 Nov 2022
Internal climate variability and spatial temperature correlations during the past 2000 years
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
Short summary

Pepijn Bakker et al.

Pepijn Bakker et al.

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.