Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-458
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-458
17 Jun 2022
 | 17 Jun 2022

Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity, and aridity: the case of Kenya

Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling

Abstract. The relation between drought severity, as expressed through widely used drought indices, and drought impacts is complex. In particular in water-limited regions where water scarcity is prevalent, the attribution of drought impacts is difficult. This study assesses the relation between reported drought impacts, drought indices, water scarcity, and aridity across several counties in Kenya. The monthly bulletins of the National Drought Management Authority in Kenya have been used to gather drought impact data. A Random Forest (RF) model was used to explore which set of drought indices best explains drought impacts on: pasture, livestock deaths, milk production, crop losses, food insecurity, trekking distance for water, and malnutrition. The findings of this study suggest a relation between drought severity and the frequency of drought impacts, whereby the latter also showed a relation with aridity, whilst water scarcity did not. The results of the RF model reveal that drought impacts can be explained by a range of drought indices across regions with different aridity. While the findings strongly depend on the availability of drought impact data and the socio-economic circumstances within a region, this study highlights the potential of linking drought indices with text-based impact reports. In doing so, however, spatial differences in aridity and water scarcity conditions have to be taken into account.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

01 Sep 2023
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-458', Paolo Tasseron, 17 Aug 2022
    • AC4: 'Reply on CC1', Marleen Lam, 05 Dec 2022
  • RC1: 'Review of Lam et al. (2022): Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity, and aridity: the case of Kenya', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Nov 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Marleen Lam, 05 Dec 2022
    • AC5: 'Reply on RC1', Marleen Lam, 05 Dec 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-458', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Nov 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Marleen Lam, 05 Dec 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Marleen Lam, 05 Dec 2022
    • AC6: 'Reply on RC2', Marleen Lam, 05 Dec 2022

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-458', Paolo Tasseron, 17 Aug 2022
    • AC4: 'Reply on CC1', Marleen Lam, 05 Dec 2022
  • RC1: 'Review of Lam et al. (2022): Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity, and aridity: the case of Kenya', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Nov 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Marleen Lam, 05 Dec 2022
    • AC5: 'Reply on RC1', Marleen Lam, 05 Dec 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-458', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Nov 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Marleen Lam, 05 Dec 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Marleen Lam, 05 Dec 2022
    • AC6: 'Reply on RC2', Marleen Lam, 05 Dec 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (11 Dec 2022) by Efthymios Nikolopoulos
AR by Marleen Lam on behalf of the Authors (09 Feb 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (08 Mar 2023) by Efthymios Nikolopoulos
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (13 Apr 2023)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (12 Jun 2023) by Efthymios Nikolopoulos
AR by Marleen Lam on behalf of the Authors (29 Jun 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (30 Jun 2023) by Efthymios Nikolopoulos
ED: Publish as is (10 Jul 2023) by Paolo Tarolli (Executive editor)
AR by Marleen Lam on behalf of the Authors (11 Jul 2023)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

01 Sep 2023
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling

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Latest update: 06 Sep 2024
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Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A Random Forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has their own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.