Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-347
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-347
 
07 Jun 2022
07 Jun 2022

Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise

Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci Damiano Baldan et al.
  • Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy

Abstract. Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels (ESLs) is one of the major impacts related to the climate change. It is expected to increase in the future due to sea level rise and storm surge intensification. Estimates of return levels obtained under the framework provided by extreme events theory might be biased under climatic non-stationarity. Additional uncertainty is related to the choice of the model. In this work, we fit several extreme values models to a long-term (96 years) sea level record from the city of Venice (NW Adriatic Sea, Italy): a Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV), a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), a Point Process (PP), and the Joint Probability Method (JPM) under different detrending strategies. We model non-stationarity with a linear dependence of the model’s parameters from the mean sea level. Our results show that non-stationary GEV and PP models fit the data better than stationary models even with detrended data. The non-stationary PP model is able to reproduce the rate of extremes occurrence fairly well. Actualized estimates of the return levels for non-stationary models are generally higher than estimates from stationary models. Thus, projections of return levels in the future might be significantly different from those calculated using stationary models. Overall, we show that non-stationary extremes analyses can provide more robust estimates of return levels to be used in coastal protection planning.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

14 Nov 2022
Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise
Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, 2022
Short summary

Damiano Baldan et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-347', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Jun 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Damiano Baldan, 13 Jul 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-347', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Jul 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Damiano Baldan, 13 Jul 2022

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-347', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Jun 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Damiano Baldan, 13 Jul 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-347', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Jul 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Damiano Baldan, 13 Jul 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (28 Jul 2022) by Philip Ward
AR by Damiano Baldan on behalf of the Authors (22 Aug 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (24 Aug 2022) by Philip Ward
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (25 Aug 2022) by Philip Ward
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (06 Sep 2022)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (09 Sep 2022) by Philip Ward
AR by Polina Shvedko on behalf of the Authors (30 Sep 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (07 Oct 2022) by Philip Ward
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (10 Oct 2022)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (11 Oct 2022) by Philip Ward
AR by Damiano Baldan on behalf of the Authors (11 Oct 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (26 Oct 2022) by Philip Ward

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

14 Nov 2022
Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise
Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, 2022
Short summary

Damiano Baldan et al.

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Extreme events analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to e.g. sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extremes sea level events.