Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-130
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-130
 
04 Apr 2022
04 Apr 2022

Identification and ranking of volcanic tsunami hazard sources in Southeast Asia

Edgar U. Zorn1, Aiym Orynbaikyzy2, Simon Plank2, Andrey Babeyko1, Herlan Darmawan3, Ismail F. Robbany2, and Thomas R. Walter1 Edgar U. Zorn et al.
  • 1German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
  • 2German Aerospace Center DLR, Münchenerstr. 20, 82234 Wessling, Germany
  • 3Geophysics Study Program, Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Sekip Utara, Bulaksumur, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Abstract. Tsunamis caused by large volcanic eruptions and flanks collapsing into the sea are major hazards for nearby coastal regions. They often occur with little precursory activity, and are thus challenging to detect in a timely manner. This makes the pre-emptive identification of volcanoes prone to causing tsunamis particularly important, as it allows for better hazard assessment and denser monitoring in these areas. Here, we present a catalogue of potentially tsunamigenic volcanoes in Southeast Asia and rank these volcanoes by their tsunami hazard. The ranking is based on a Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) composed of five individually weighted factors impacting flank stability and tsunami hazard. The data is sourced from geological databases, remote sensing data, historical volcano induced tsunami records and our topographic analyses, mainly considering the eruptive and tsunami history, elevation relative to the distance from the sea, flank steepness, hydrothermal alteration as well as vegetation coverage. Out of 131 analysed volcanoes, we found 19 with particularly high tsunamigenic hazard potential in Indonesia (Anak Krakatau, Batu Tara, Iliwerung, Gamalama, Sangeang Api, Karangetang, Sirung, Wetar, Nila, Ruang, Serua) and Papua New Guinea (Kadovar, Ritter Island, Rabaul, Manam, Langila, Ulawun, Bam), but also in the Philippines (Didicas). While some of these volcanoes, such as Anak Krakatau, are well-known for their deadly tsunamis, many others on this list are lesser known and monitored. We further performed tsunami travel time modelling on these high-hazard volcanoes, which indicates that future events could affect large coastal areas in a short time. This highlights the importance of individual tsunami hazard assessment for these volcanoes, dedicated volcanological monitoring, and the need for increased preparedness on the potentially affected coasts.

Edgar U. Zorn et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-130', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Apr 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-130', Anonymous Referee #2, 30 Apr 2022

Edgar U. Zorn et al.

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Short summary
Tsunamis caused by volcanoes are a challenge for warning systems as they are difficult to predict and detect. In Southeast Asia there are many active volcanoes close to the coast, so it is important to identify the most likely volcanoes to cause tsunamis in the future. For this purpose, we developed a point-based score system, allowing us to rank volcanoes by the hazard they pose. The results may be used to improve local monitoring and preparedness in the affected areas.