Loading [MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/fonts/TeX/fontdata.js
Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1176
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1176
11 Nov 2022
 | 11 Nov 2022

Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems

Paul Ritchie, Hassan Alkhayuon, Peter Cox, and Sebastian Wieczorek

Abstract. Over the last two decades, tipping points have become a hot topic due to the devastating consequences that they may have on natural and human systems. Tipping points are typically associated with a system bifurcation when external forcing crosses a critical level, causing an abrupt transition to an alternative, and often less desirable, state. The main message of this review is that the rate of change in forcing is arguably of even greater relevance in the human-dominated anthropocene, but is rarely examined as a potential sole mechanism for tipping points. Thus, we address the related phenomenon of rate-induced tipping: an instability that occurs when external forcing varies across some critical rate, usually without crossing any bifurcations. First, we explain when to expect rate-induced tipping. Then, we use three illustrating examples of differing complexity to highlight universal and generic properties of rate-induced tipping in a range of natural and human systems.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Share

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

14 Jun 2023
| Highlight paper
Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Hassan Alkhayuon, Peter M. Cox, and Sebastian Wieczorek
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 669–683, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023, 2023
Short summary Chief editor
Download

The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Tipping points have potentially major detrimental impacts on natural and human systems. This...
Short summary
Complex systems can undergo abrupt changes or ‘tipping points’ when external forcing crosses a...
Share