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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1058
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1058
21 Oct 2022
 | 21 Oct 2022

Historical rainfall data in Northern Italy predict larger meteorological drought hazard than climate projections

Rui Guo and Alberto Montanari

Abstract. Simulation of daily rainfall for the region of Bologna produced by 13 climate models for the period 1850–2100 are compared with the historical series of daily rainfall observed in Bologna for the period 1850–2014, and analysed to assess meteorological drought changes up to 2100. In particular, we focus on annual rainfall data, seasonality and drought events to derive information on the future development of critical events for water resources availability. The results prove that rainfall statistics, including seasonal patterns, are fairly well simulated by models, while the historical sequence of annual rainfall is not satisfactorily reproduced. In terms of meteorological droughts, we conclude that historical data analysis under the assumption of stationarity may depict a more critical future with respect to climate model simulations, therefore outlining important technical indications.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

01 Aug 2023
Historical rainfall data in northern Italy predict larger meteorological drought hazard than climate projections
Rui Guo and Alberto Montanari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2847–2863, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2847-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2847-2023, 2023
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
The present study refers to the region of Bologna, where the availability of a 209-year-long...
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