21 Oct 2022
21 Oct 2022
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).

The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last Millennium

Lucie J. Lücke1, Andrew P. Schurer1, Matthew Toohey2, Lauren R. Marshall3,a, and Gabriele C. Hegerl1 Lucie J. Lücke et al.
  • 1School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
  • 2Institute of Space and Atmospheric Studies, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
  • 3Yusuf Hamied Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
  • anow at: Department of Earth Sciences, Durham University, Durham, UK

Abstract. Here we investigate how uncertainties in the solar and volcanic forcing records of the past millennium affect the large-scale temperature response of a 2-box impulse response model. We use different published solar forcing records and present a new volcanic forcing ensemble which accounts for random uncertainties in eruption dating and sulfur injection amount. The simulations are compared to proxy reconstructions from PAGES 2k and Northern hemispheric tree-ring data. We find that low solar forcing is most consistent with all the proxy reconstructions, even when accounting for volcanic uncertainty and that the residuals are well in line with CMIP6 control variability at centennial timescales. Volcanic forcing uncertainty induces a significant spread in the temperature response, especially at periods of peak forcing. For individual eruptions and superposed epoch analyses volcanic uncertainty can strongly affect the agreement with proxy reconstructions, and may explain previous proxy-model discrepancies.

Lucie J. Lücke et al.

Status: open (until 01 Jan 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1039', Anonymous Referee #1, 07 Nov 2022 reply

Lucie J. Lücke et al.

Lucie J. Lücke et al.


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Short summary
Tree-rings and ice cores provide information about the influence of past volcanic eruptions and changes in sun's activity on climate. However, this information is often incomplete and uncertain. We model different possible scenarios of past climate, and compare to information from natural archives. We confirm that sun's influence has been low, that uncertainty in the volcanic record can strongly influence simulated temperature variability.