Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1013
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1013
04 Oct 2022
 | 04 Oct 2022

Regime-oriented causal model evaluation of Atlantic-Pacific teleconnections in CMIP6

Soufiane Karmouche, Evgenia Galytska, Jakob Runge, Gerald A. Meehl, Adam S. Phillips, Katja Weigel, and Veronika Eyring

Abstract. The climate system and its spatio-temporal changes are strongly affected by modes of long-term internal variability, like the Pacific Decadal Varibility (PDV) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). As they alternate between warm and cold phases, the interplay between PDV and AMV varies over decadal to multidecadal timescales. Here, we use a causal discovery method to derive fingerprints in the Atlantic-Pacific interactions and investigate their phase-dependent changes. Dependent on the phases of PDV and AMV, different regimes with characteristic causal fingerprints are identified in reanalyses in a first step. In a second step, a regime-oriented causal model evaluation is performed to evaluate the ability of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in representing the observed changing interactions between PDV, AMV and their extra-tropical teleconnections. The causal graphs obtained from reanalyses detect a direct opposite-sign response from AMV on PDV when analysing the complete 1900–2014 period, and during several defined regimes within that period, for example, when AMV is going through its negative (cold) phase. Reanalyses also demonstrate a same-sign response from PDV on AMV during the cold phase of PDV. Historical CMIP6 simulations exhibit varying skill in simulating the observed causal patterns. Generally, Large Ensemble (LE) simulations showed better network similarity when PDV and AMV are out of phase compared to other regimes. Also, the two largest ensembles (in terms of number of members) were found to contain realizations with similar causal fingerprints to observations. For most regimes, these same models showed higher network similarity when compared to each other. This work shows how causal discovery on LEs complements the available diagnostics and statistics metrics of climate variability to provide a powerful tool for climate model evaluation.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

21 Mar 2023
Regime-oriented causal model evaluation of Atlantic–Pacific teleconnections in CMIP6
Soufiane Karmouche, Evgenia Galytska, Jakob Runge, Gerald A. Meehl, Adam S. Phillips, Katja Weigel, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 309–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-309-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-309-2023, 2023
Short summary

Soufiane Karmouche et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1013', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Dec 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Soufiane Karmouche, 12 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1013', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Dec 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Soufiane Karmouche, 12 Jan 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1013', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Dec 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Soufiane Karmouche, 12 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1013', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Dec 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Soufiane Karmouche, 12 Jan 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (17 Jan 2023) by Christian Franzke
AR by Soufiane Karmouche on behalf of the Authors (17 Jan 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (13 Feb 2023) by Christian Franzke
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (14 Feb 2023)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (02 Mar 2023)
ED: Publish as is (02 Mar 2023) by Christian Franzke
AR by Soufiane Karmouche on behalf of the Authors (02 Mar 2023)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

21 Mar 2023
Regime-oriented causal model evaluation of Atlantic–Pacific teleconnections in CMIP6
Soufiane Karmouche, Evgenia Galytska, Jakob Runge, Gerald A. Meehl, Adam S. Phillips, Katja Weigel, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 309–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-309-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-309-2023, 2023
Short summary

Soufiane Karmouche et al.

Soufiane Karmouche et al.

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Short summary
Causal model evaluation is helping to better understand remote contributions to internal variability over specific regions. The approach and findings presented in this study have the potential of bringing up a powerful methodology that can be applied in a number of environment-related topics, offering tremendous insight to improve the understanding of the complex earth system and the state-of-the-art of climate modeling.