Evidence of Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models

Abstract. Amazon forest dieback is seen as a potential tipping point under climate change. These concerns are partly based-on an early coupled climate-carbon cycle simulation, that produced unusually strong drying and warming in Amazonia. In contrast, the 5^th generation Earth System Models (CMIP5) produced few examples of Amazon dieback under climate change. Here we examine results from seven 6^th generation models (CMIP6) which include vegetation dynamics, and in some cases interactive forest fires. Although these models typically project increases in area-mean forest carbon across Amazonia under CO₂-induced climate change, five of the seven models also produce abrupt reductions in vegetation carbon which indicate localised dieback events. The Northern South America region (NSA), which contains most of the rainforest, is especially vulnerable in the models. These dieback events, some of which are mediated by fire, are preceded by an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in near surface temperature, which is consistent with more extreme dry seasons. Based-on the ensemble mean of the detected dieback events we estimate that 7 +/-5 % of the NSA region will experience abrupt downward shifts in vegetation carbon per °C of global warming above 1.5 °C.