Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-880
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-880
13 Apr 2026
 | 13 Apr 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Contrasting land carbon uptake responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation across North America

Wu Sun, Kelsey Foster, Yoichi Shiga, Julian Merder, Nina Randazzo, and Anna Michalak

Abstract. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives year-to-year variability in the land carbon sink. While responses of land carbon uptake to ENSO have been documented at aggregated continental scales over North America, these responses arise from ENSO's climate impacts that vary across subcontinental regions. Disentangling diverse regional responses is crucial for attributing ENSO's impacts on carbon uptake to climatic drivers. Here, we characterize ENSO-driven carbon–climate interactions across North America, a data-rich continent with prominent responses to ENSO, by leveraging fine-resolution (1° × 1°) top-down estimates of land carbon fluxes derived from tall-tower atmospheric CO2 observations and spaceborne chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. We identify regions with distinct ENSO responses in the timing, direction, and magnitude of carbon uptake anomalies. Notably, regions where El Niño boosts carbon uptake, including the Pacific–Mountainous West and subtropical lands, are consistent with ENSO-driven shifts in the position of the subtropical jet. We further uncover contrasting patterns in how energy and water limitations mediate ENSO's impacts on carbon uptake across regions. These findings reveal key regional mechanisms connecting ENSO-driven climate variability with continental-scale carbon uptake responses and highlight the need to reassess tropical carbon–climate feedbacks in light of compensatory extratropical responses.

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Wu Sun, Kelsey Foster, Yoichi Shiga, Julian Merder, Nina Randazzo, and Anna Michalak

Status: open (until 25 May 2026)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
Wu Sun, Kelsey Foster, Yoichi Shiga, Julian Merder, Nina Randazzo, and Anna Michalak

Model code and software

Code for the analysis of ENSO impact on North American land carbon uptake Wu Sun and Julian Merder https://gitlab.com/wusun/enso-impact-na-carbon-flux

Wu Sun, Kelsey Foster, Yoichi Shiga, Julian Merder, Nina Randazzo, and Anna Michalak
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Latest update: 13 Apr 2026
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Short summary
El Niño weakens the global land carbon sink but boosts uptake over North America. Using regional top-down carbon flux estimates, we find that El Niño enhances carbon uptake in western and subtropical North America but suppresses uptake in mid-continental regions, reflecting control by the Pacific jet and region-specific impacts of energy and water availability. This spatially refined understanding of El Niño impacts on North American carbon uptake helps better inform carbon–climate feedbacks.
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