Quantifying Compounded Economic Impacts and Disease Burden of Flooding in Can Tho, Vietnam

Abstract. In growing urban areas, floods increasingly threaten daily life, causing economic losses and raising public health burdens through microbial exposure. Yet, risk assessments often treat economic and health impacts separately, overlooking their interconnected nature and potentially biasing adaptation strategies. This study addresses this gap by quantifying spatial and distributional disparities in flood risks across economic and health dimensions in Can Tho City, a flood-prone urban area in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta.

We calibrate flood impact models for the economic sector by estimating residential building losses, and for the health sector by predicting rotavirus A and E. coli concentrations in floodwaters and resulting disease burden. By combining probabilistic flood simulations with exposure data, we develop a multi-risk framework to capture co-occurring economic and health impacts. Economic risk is quantified via Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Annual Damage (EAD) for fluvial–pluvial flooding, while health risk is expressed through the Population Health at Risk (PHaR) and Expected Annual Cases (EAC).

Results show pronounced spatial disparities in intersecting risks. The highest combined economic and health risks are found in Phu Thu and Thuong Thanh wards (Cai Rang district) and An Binh ward (Ninh Kieu district), while An Hoi, An Lac, and Tan An wards (Ninh Kieu district) experience consistently low risks. These findings highlight how urbanization and flooding interact to shape multi-sector vulnerabilities in delta cities.