Review and Synthesis: operational prediction of ocean biogeochemistry in the Copernicus Marine Service. Main achievements and perspectives

Abstract. The operational prediction of marine biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems (the green ocean) has made significant progresses during the last decade. The green ocean is now routinely forecasted every day, and multi-decadal reanalyses are produced with an always increasing resolution and over longer periods. The quality of the green ocean products has increased thanks to the improved model formulations, resolution, data assimilation systems and increased availability of biogeochemical observations routinely delivered in near real time.

Here we review the advancements in our capabilities to predict the green ocean in the frame of the European Copernicus Marine Service (CMEMS) since its start in 2015 and for the five European seas, the Arctic and Global oceans. The evolutions of the prediction systems (e.g. model formulations, data assimilation, coupling with the physics and at the interfaces), delivered products (e.g. resolution, quality assessment, adequacy to support the development of indicators and the decision-making process), and computing resources requirements are reviewed. The predictability drivers and relevant time scales for marine biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems predictions are discussed. Recommendations for future developments are proposed based on a SWOT analysis of current CMEMS green ocean prediction systems and products.