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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-792
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-792
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
05 Mar 2026
| 05 Mar 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
ESD Ideas: Reliable Adaptation Policies to Sea-Level Rise Require Incorporating Complexity in Economic Models
Abstract. With trillions of USD in assets facing climate-induced sea-level rise, oversimplified economic models might misinform responses. By capturing non-linearities in interconnected socio-economic and biogeophysical domains, and their local to global co-evolution, complexity science applied to sea-level rise uniquely enhances adaptation policies.
How to cite. Cremades, ., Giupponi, C., Raimondo, S., Battiston, S., Bosello, F., Filatova, T., Haasnoot, M., Hallegatte, S., Hinkel, J., Lionello, P., Mandel, A., Monasterolo, I., Nicholls, R., Vafeidis, A., van Ginkel, K., and Völz, V.: ESD Ideas: Reliable Adaptation Policies to Sea-Level Rise Require Incorporating Complexity in Economic Models, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-792, 2026.
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Roger Cremades
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, Faculty of Environment, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT Leeds, UK
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Corso Magenta 63, 20123 Milano, Italy
Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, San Giobbe 873 30121 Venice, Italy
Sebastian Raimondo
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Corso Magenta 63, 20123 Milano, Italy
Stefano Battiston
Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, San Giobbe 873 30121 Venice, Italy
Dept. of Banking and Finance, University of Zurich, Plattenstrasse 32, 8032, Zurich, Switzerland
Francesco Bosello
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Via Torino 155, 30172 Venezia-Mestre, Italy
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, 73100 Lecce, Italy
RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, 73100 Lecce, Italy
Tatiana Filatova
Policy Analysis Section, Department of Multi Actor Systems, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 52628 BX Delft, The Netherlands
Marjolijn Haasnoot
Deltares, Department of climate adaptation and water resources management, Boussinesqweg 1 2629 HV Delft, the Netherlands
Utrecht University, Department of Physical Geography, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB Utrecht, the Netherlands
Stephane Hallegatte
The World Bank, Sustainable Development Vice-Presidency, Washington DC 20433, USA
Jochen Hinkel
Global Climate Forum (GCF), Adaptation and Social Learning, Neue Promenade 6, 10178 Berlin, Germany
Resource Economics Group, Thaer-Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany
Piero Lionello
Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences and Technologies, University of Salento, 73100 Lecce, Italy
Antoine Mandel
Climate Finance Alpha, 20 Rue de Vintimille, 75009 Paris, France
University Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, 12 Place du Panthéon, 75005 Paris, France
Irene Monasterolo
Utrecht University, School of Economics, Kriekenpitplein 21, 3584 EC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Climate change and the environment, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Boulevard St Germain 187, 75007, Paris, France
Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien, Dept. of Ecological Economics, Welthandelsplatz 2, D5, 3.034 1020 Vienna, Austria
Robert Nicholls
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, UK
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Engineering, University of Southampton, UK
Athanasios Vafeidis
Institute of Geography, Christian-Albrechts University Kiel, 24098 Kiel, Germany
Kees van Ginkel
Utrecht University, Department of Physical Geography, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB Utrecht, the Netherlands
VU University Amsterdam, Institute for Environmental Studies, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Vanessa Völz
Global Climate Forum (GCF), Adaptation and Social Learning, Neue Promenade 6, 10178 Berlin, Germany
Resource Economics Group, Thaer-Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany
Short summary
Current economic models for coastal adaptation are very simplistic. They underestimate sea-level rise risks by ignoring real-world complexities like inequality, financial domino effects, and human behaviour. This leads to policies that could waste millions and lock communities into dangerous paths. A solution is using models with complex systems science to inform policy. By modelling interconnected social and environmental systems, we can design reliable adaptation plans.
Current economic models for coastal adaptation are very simplistic. They underestimate sea-level...