Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-678
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-678
12 Feb 2026
 | 12 Feb 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Brief communication: Drought economic assessments must include human health impacts

Alexandre C. Costa, Francisco G. F. da Silva, Rafaella P. Moreira, Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, Luewton L. F. Agostinho, and Pieter R. van Oel

Abstract. The economic valuation of drought-related health interventions reveals that ensuring groundwater access during severe droughts could avert significant losses in Northeast Brazil. Estimated benefits from reduced diarrhea hospitalizations and mortality total 9.92 % of local GDP. When scaled to state level, avoidable losses may reach USD 1.15 billion, which are comparable to the economic drought’s impacts on productive sectors, such as agriculture, livestock, and industry, underscoring the macroeconomic relevance of investing in resilient water infrastructure in a health-promoting perspective.

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Alexandre C. Costa, Francisco G. F. da Silva, Rafaella P. Moreira, Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, Luewton L. F. Agostinho, and Pieter R. van Oel

Status: open (until 26 Mar 2026)

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Alexandre C. Costa, Francisco G. F. da Silva, Rafaella P. Moreira, Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, Luewton L. F. Agostinho, and Pieter R. van Oel
Alexandre C. Costa, Francisco G. F. da Silva, Rafaella P. Moreira, Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, Luewton L. F. Agostinho, and Pieter R. van Oel
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Latest update: 12 Feb 2026
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Short summary
Many studies highlight drought impacts on productive sectors, such as agriculture and navigation, but economic consequences for human health remain understudied. We conducted an economic valuation of drought-related health interventions in Brazil, showing that ensuring groundwater access during severe droughts can avert substantial losses. Estimated benefits from reduced diarrhea hospitalizations total 9.92 % of local GDP, with avoidable losses reaching USD 1.15 billion at the state level.
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