Arctic bimodality reflects enhanced variability in the clear-cloudy transition rather than bistability

Abstract. The wintertime Arctic boundary layer is characterized by two distinct states, radiatively clear (cloud-free) and radiatively opaque (cloudy), which is reflected in observations as a bimodal distribution. Previous studies hypothesized that these regimes are related to an underlying bistability of the system's dynamics. We apply a drift–diffusion framework based on the two leading terms of the Kramers-Moyal expansion to observations from 15 winter periods in Ny-Ålesund, Norway. Our model captures the bimodality; we find a single stable point for the deterministic drift, however, which questions the existence of bistable deterministic dynamics. Instead, the observed regimes can be attributed to state-dependent stochastic fluctuations with maximum amplitude close to the clear-cloudy transition. The position of the stable point depends on the meteorological conditions. Controlling for synoptic variability does not remove the state-dependence of diffusion, however. The cloudy regime is associated with southwesterly winds, high specific humidities, and uplifting motion, the latter two being conducive for cloud formation, while the cloud-free regime occurs under drier conditions and northeasterly winds. Through an illustrative example, we suggest a possible process-based interpretation of our statistical analysis. The nonlinear onset of cloud formation, once atmospheric humidity reaches saturation, could map state-independent fluctuations in humidity to state-dependent fluctuations in cloudiness.