Warming winters bring climatic opportunities and risks for winter crops in Northern Europe

Abstract. Winter crops, crops sown in the autumn and harvested the following spring or summer, often provide higher yields and are more resilient to early-season climatic stress compared with spring crops. However, their yields depend on successful overwintering, and hence suitable temperature and snow conditions. It remains unclear whether warming will expand their cultivation opportunities by easing temperature limitations or rather increase exposure to harmful winter conditions across Northern Europe. We used a regional single-model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) based on the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5-LE) under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario (1955–2099) to examine: (1) projected changes in winter climate conditions relevant to winter crops, (2) the timing at which climate change signals in these conditions emerge from natural climate variability, and (3) the influence of bias correction in robustness and detectability of these changes and their timing.

Average winter temperature increases by the end of the century, expanding the climatic suitability for winter crops without compromising cold degree day requirements for crop acclimation or vernalization. However, freeze-thaw cycles and shallow snow become more frequent, raising risks of cold damage and premature cold deacclimation. Adverse winter conditions emerge as early as 2040 north of 60° N and around two decades earlier south of 60° N, indicating that, without adaptations, winter crop production can be challenged. After bias correction these conditions emerge earlier than in raw simulations, calling for even earlier adaptation.