12 Nov 2026
| 12 Nov 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Brief communication: Tidal timing and minutes to act during the 15 August 2026 Flores tsunami
Abstract. The 15 August 2026 Flores tsunami provides a case for evaluating how tidal timing can alter inundation. We reconstruct the event with coupled Delft3D-SFINCS simulations constrained by post-event observations. We then simulate the same tsunami at high tide (+0.7 m relative to mean sea level, MSL), representing the spring high tide recorded on the event day. Relative to the 3.81 km2 reconstructed-event inundation above highest astronomical tide (HAT), high tide increases inundated area to 11.84 km2, a 3.1-fold increase. These results support tide-informed hazard maps, evacuation planning, community education, and preparedness close to tsunami sources.
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
