Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5858
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5858
04 Nov 2026
 | 04 Nov 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).

The Seasonal Duality of Elevation-Dependent Warming in High-Latitude Mountains: A Century of Observations in Norway

Ketil Isaksen, Alessio M. Canclini, Herdis M. Gjelten, Cristian Lussana, Julia Lutz, Øyvind Nordli, Rasmus E. Benestad, Andreas Dobler, Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Thomas N. Nipen, Line Båserud, Erik Berge, Helene B. Erlandsen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Rune S. Ødegård, and Karianne Ødemark

Abstract. Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) is driven by complex surface energy and atmospheric feedbacks, yet historical alpine temperature trends in high-latitude regions like Norway remain largely unexamined due to a reliance on lowland datasets. Addressing this gap, we provide the first comprehensive assessment of elevation-dependent warming across Norwegian mountains. We integrate four new century-scale (1904–2025) homogenised high-elevation temperature series, a national station network, and the high-resolution NORA3 regional reanalysis to quantify multi-decadal warming rates, resolve elevation gradients, and evaluate physical mechanisms. The NORA3 reanalysis demonstrates high temporal homogeneity and spatial fidelity against in-situ observations, successfully resolving fine-scale elevation gradients in data-sparse alpine regions and overcoming the decadal trend drifts prevalent in coarser global models. Observations reveal accelerating mountain warming, with annual rates increasing from 0.16–0.17 °C per decade during 1935–2025 to 0.39–0.41 °C per decade during 1981–2025. The EDW signal exhibits a pronounced seasonal duality. A robust positive EDW pattern dominates summer and autumn, with warming rates increasing with elevation and peaking at over 0.45–0.50 °C per decade at the highest alpine areas and sub-Arctic plateaus. This warm-season amplification is likely driven by localised snow-albedo feedbacks from earlier snowpack depletion, reinforced by atmospheric moistening, which disproportionately raises water vapour mixing ratios, thereby enhancing downwelling longwave radiation. Conversely, winter warming is characterised by a topographically constrained inverse EDW regime in sheltered continental valleys. This lowland enhancement is likely driven by atmospheric circulation shifts that increase wind and cloudiness, effectively eroding static cold-air pools and radiation inversions in valleys.

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Ketil Isaksen, Alessio M. Canclini, Herdis M. Gjelten, Cristian Lussana, Julia Lutz, Øyvind Nordli, Rasmus E. Benestad, Andreas Dobler, Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Thomas N. Nipen, Line Båserud, Erik Berge, Helene B. Erlandsen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Rune S. Ødegård, and Karianne Ødemark

Status: open (until 16 Dec 2026)

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Ketil Isaksen, Alessio M. Canclini, Herdis M. Gjelten, Cristian Lussana, Julia Lutz, Øyvind Nordli, Rasmus E. Benestad, Andreas Dobler, Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Thomas N. Nipen, Line Båserud, Erik Berge, Helene B. Erlandsen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Rune S. Ødegård, and Karianne Ødemark
Ketil Isaksen, Alessio M. Canclini, Herdis M. Gjelten, Cristian Lussana, Julia Lutz, Øyvind Nordli, Rasmus E. Benestad, Andreas Dobler, Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Thomas N. Nipen, Line Båserud, Erik Berge, Helene B. Erlandsen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Rune S. Ødegård, and Karianne Ødemark
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Short summary
Using long-term observations and high-resolution reanalysis, we provide the first century-scale assessment of elevation-dependent warming in Norway, revealing a seasonal duality: in summer and autumn, melting snow and ice enhance warming in high alpine areas. In winter, valleys warm faster as weather shifts break down trapped cold air. This pattern accelerates snow and permafrost loss, altering ecosystems, intensifying natural hazards, and threatening infrastructure.
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