Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-580
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-580
04 Feb 2026
 | 04 Feb 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Convective controls on anvil cloud evolution in the ICON km-scale global climate model

Mathilde Ritman, William Jones, and Philip Stier

Abstract. Deep convective clouds substantially modify the balance of shortwave and longwave radiative energy at the top of the atmosphere. Although in the present-day these effects approximately balance out, projected changes in deep convective clouds could alter the future top-of-atmosphere energy balance. Past studies have found relationships between convection and anvil clouds, but our understanding of how convection typically controls the properties and evolution of anvil clouds that determine anvil radiative effects remains incomplete, limiting our ability to explain or justify projected changes in cloud optical properties. This manuscript presents a new method to track the lifecycle of deep convective clouds and their convective cores in three-dimensional space in km-scale global climate models. An analysis of how convective organisation, intensity and area relate to anvil properties in the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model is then presented. Approximately 1,000 deep convective clouds are tracked over one simulation week in the tropical Amazon region. We find that while both convective intensity and area correspond to larger anvils, the correlation between convective area and anvil size is stronger than that between anvil size and convective intensity. Convective intensity was associated with a 4-fold increase in anvil extent when convective cores were larger, compared to when they were in the bottom 50th percentile. This result could not be explained by associated changes in peak convective mass flux or organisation. These results indicate how changes in the frequency or typical size of convective updrafts may link to changes in anvil development, extent and, ultimately, radiative effects.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Mathilde Ritman, William Jones, and Philip Stier

Status: open (until 18 Mar 2026)

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Mathilde Ritman, William Jones, and Philip Stier

Data sets

ICON tracked deep convective cloud statistics and data accompanying the manuscript "Convective controls on anvil cloud evolution in the ICON km-scale global climate model" Mathilde Ritman https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18413874

Model code and software

Scripts to produces results presented in "Convective controls on anvil cloud evolution in the ICON km-scale global climate model" Mathilde Ritman https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18414234

Interactive computing environment

Scripts to produces results presented in "Convective controls on anvil cloud evolution in the ICON km-scale global climate model" Mathilde Ritman https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18414234

Mathilde Ritman, William Jones, and Philip Stier
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Short summary
The link between storm updrafts and the high clouds they produce has been difficult to study at large scale but may be important for understanding climate sensitivity. This study uses a new high-resolution global climate model to see how updrafts typically relate to cloud evolution. More intense updrafts saw larger clouds, but this relationship was much stronger when the updrafts themselves were larger. That means changes in the usual size of updrafts could link to changes in high cloud area.
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