Explaining the rapid 2019–2024 increase in methane emissions from Colombia seen in satellite observations: a high-resolution inverse analysis

Abstract. Colombia has been identified as a hotspot of increasing methane emissions over the 2019-2024 period by coarse-resolution global inversion of TROPOMI satellite observations. Here we reproduce this result with a high-resolution (25×25 km²) monthly analytical inversion of TROPOMI observations for the same period conducted within the Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) framework and evaluated independently with GOSAT and GHGSat satellite observations. Prior estimates for the inversion include spatially-resolved national inventory reports and a measurement-based oil and gas sector inventory for anthropogenic emissions and high-resolution monthly CYGNSS satellite inundation data. We exploit the seasonality in the monthly inversion results to separate wetlands from anthropogenic sources. Total emissions from Colombia optimized by the inversion increase at a best estimated rate (and uncertainty) of 0.23 (0.025–0.46) Tg a^-2 (2% a^-1) during 2019–2024. Most of this increase is attributed to wetland emissions, peaking in 2021–2022 due to high precipitation driven by La Niña but reflecting interannual variability rather than a sustained trend. Anthropogenic sources account for 34% of the increase driven by cattle population growth, concentrated waste sources near Bogotá, increasing depth of surface coal mines, and fugitive emissions in oil and gas fields. The large seasonal and interannual variability of wetland emissions closely aligns with total water storage anomalies measured by the GRACE satellite instrument, consistent with the importance of water table dynamics in controlling emissions. This work demonstrates that satellite inversions can resolve sectoral drivers of national methane trends and monitor changes in emissions at policy-relevant scales.