Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5596
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5596
19 Oct 2026
 | 19 Oct 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).

Brief communication: Sankey diagrams of the simulated mass balance of sea ice and its overlying snow cover across both hemispheres

Alek Aaron Petty, Christopher Cardinale, Madison M. Smith, Edward W. Blockley, Patricia DeRepentigny, Sebastian Gerland, François Massonnet, Benjamin Richaud, Lettie A. Roach, and Martin Vancoppenolle

Abstract. The mass budget of sea ice and its overlying snow cover integrates the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that govern their variability. Here we investigate how Sankey flow diagrams, a widely used and intuitive data visualisation technique for integrated budgets, can provide insight into sea ice and snow-on-ice mass budgets. We draw on multiple model sources, including fully coupled climate models and an ERA5-forced ocean--sea ice reanalysis. The sea ice and snow-on-sea-ice budget terms are defined following established Coupled Model Intercomparison Project protocols, area-integrated over the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for a prescribed modern-era climatological period (2015 to 2034), and displayed as flows whose width is proportional to the annual mass flux. The sources and sinks are labelled by their percentage contribution to the total budget, including the ensemble spread of each relative term. Both the climate model ensemble and the reanalysis show a similar relative budget partitioning, an encouraging sign of reliability in our budget estimates. Overall, we find the diagrams provide an accessible, process-level reference for understanding and visualizing the sea ice and snow mass budgets. The framework we provide is intended as a living resource that can be extended with additional climate simulation output (e.g. the upcoming CMIP7 release) and ocean-sea ice reanalyses, as well as suggested changes in Sankey configuration (or alternative visualization approaches) to emphasize different aspects of the mass budgets. This work has been undertaken in support of the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report (AR7).

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of The Cryosphere.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Alek Aaron Petty, Christopher Cardinale, Madison M. Smith, Edward W. Blockley, Patricia DeRepentigny, Sebastian Gerland, François Massonnet, Benjamin Richaud, Lettie A. Roach, and Martin Vancoppenolle

Status: open (until 30 Nov 2026)

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Alek Aaron Petty, Christopher Cardinale, Madison M. Smith, Edward W. Blockley, Patricia DeRepentigny, Sebastian Gerland, François Massonnet, Benjamin Richaud, Lettie A. Roach, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Alek Aaron Petty, Christopher Cardinale, Madison M. Smith, Edward W. Blockley, Patricia DeRepentigny, Sebastian Gerland, François Massonnet, Benjamin Richaud, Lettie A. Roach, and Martin Vancoppenolle
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Latest update: 19 Oct 2026
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Short summary
Sankey diagrams are used to visualize the simulated sea ice and snow-on-ice mass budgets across Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, based on CMIP6-class models and an atmosphere-forced ocean–sea ice simulation. Coupled models and the forced run show a similar relative budget, with more basal growth and surface melt in the Arctic and a larger snow-to-ice contribution in the Southern Ocean. The diagrams are a model-based reference intended to support the upcoming IPCC AR7.
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