the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 23 Sep 2026
WCD Ideas: The transition from event-based storylines to conditional climate trajectories
Abstract. The recent emergence of studies using multi-year storyline simulations raises questions regarding the interpretation of the climate information they provide. We argue that these simulations can be viewed as conditional climate trajectories, extending the original event-based storyline concept while preserving its fundamental philosophy of conditioning on atmospheric circulation. The transition of storylines from assessing individual events to continuous multi-year simulations changes how the associated statistics and attribution statements should be interpreted and communicated. Therefore, in this paper, we revisit the conceptual interpretation of multi-year storyline simulations and examine the implications of viewing them as conditional climate trajectories.
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Status: open (until 08 Nov 2026)
- RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-5459', Anonymous Referee #1, 24 Oct 2026 reply
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General comments
The present manuscript highlights an important concept that has not yet received sufficient attention in the literature: the treatment of multi-year storylines as conditional climate trajectories. It demonstrates the considerable value of such simulations while cautioning the reader about possible pitfalls in the interpretation of their results when conventional statistical methods are applied to their analysis.
The ideas are communicated clearly and concisely, and the authors provide guidelines that will be very helpful for researchers planning or analysing longer storyline simulations. The manuscript is very well structured, and I can only recommend its publication almost as is.
Specific comments
I do not see any issues that would hinder publication. My only suggestion, which is entirely optional, is to consider an additional paper that I find relevant to this discussion:
A good example of the PGW approach in the context of multi-year storylines is the comprehensive study by Aalbers et al. (2023) (https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023), in which the authors analysed both long climate trajectories under two different climates and the particular case of the 2018 drought.