Global fuel and burned area reconstructions and projections for 1950–2100

Abstract. Fire is a key component of the Earth system, influencing ecosystems, atmospheric composition, and carbon–climate feedbacks. Although observations, process-based models, and data-driven approaches have advanced understanding of historical global fire activity, projecting fire regimes under concurrent changes in climate, fuels, land cover, and socioeconomic conditions remains challenging. Here, we present Sparky-Climate, a data-driven framework providing a global reconstruction and scenario-based projections of burned area and eight fuel characteristics from 1950 to 2100 at monthly approximately 25 km resolution. The framework emulates fuel load, vegetation state, and fuel moisture before predicting burned area fraction from meteorological, land-cover, fuel, and socioeconomic predictors. Historical reconstructions are driven by reanalysis and historical socioeconomic data, whereas future projections use CMIP6 climate simulations with Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-consistent land-use and socioeconomic inputs.

Comparison with the FireCCILT11 satellite-based burned area product shows agreement in spatial patterns, temporal variability, and multi-decadal trends (r = 0.87). By the late 21st century, global burned area is projected to decline by 6.7–21.9 % across the scenario ensemble, masking substantial regional divergence. Savanna burned area is projected to decline by 15.2–31.3 %, whereas temperate and boreal forests are projected to increase by 6.3–18.2 %, particularly under high-emission pathways. Tropical moist forests are projected to show weak declines under low-emission pathways (7.6–8.1 %) but increases under high-emission pathways (7.6–24.4 %). Extreme fire activity is projected to decline in tropical regions, but to increase in temperate and boreal biomes, with the strongest amplification generally occurring for the most extreme events and under higher-emission scenarios.

Sparky-Climate provides a consistent framework for analysing long-term changes in fuel conditions and fire regimes under alternative climate and socioeconomic pathways.