Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5202
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5202
09 Sep 2026
 | 09 Sep 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Convective environments prone to downbursts, large hail, short-duration precipitation extremes and tornadoes in Spain

Andres Barrio-Martin, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Nuria P. Plaza-Martin, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Andreas F. Prein, Tim R. McVicar, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Luis Gimeno, Raquel Nieto, Zhenzhong Zeng, Ana Morata, and Deliang Chen

Abstract. Deep moist convection produces several hazards including downbursts, tornadoes, large hail, and short-duration precipitation extremes, resulting in fatalities and substantial economic losses. This study employs observational reports, lightning flashes and the ERA5 reanalysis over Spain (2015–2024) to summarize the key environmental differences between non-severe convection and each of these hazards, by ranking 203 convective parameters according to their discriminatory skill, and comparing composite vertical profiles. Summer downburst environments are markedly warmer than non-severe environments, with downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) emerging as the most discriminating parameter. Non-summer downbursts show enhanced wind shear relative to non-severe convection, though rarely reaching High-Shear–Low-CAPE conditions. Summer tornadoes and waterspouts display higher 0–3 km CAPE and a lower level of free convection than non-severe convection, but non-summer cases overlap substantially with non-severe environments. Hail over 5 cm in diameter occurs mostly in summer, in environments of elevated CAPE and shear, best distinguished by the WMAXSHEAR composite index. Short-duration precipitation extremes, evaluated during non-summer months, are associated with elevated moisture and some supercell signatures, supporting slow motions. These results provide a comprehensive framework for future studies on severe convective weather and climate model projections, representative of the Mediterranean severe convective environments.

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Andres Barrio-Martin, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Nuria P. Plaza-Martin, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Andreas F. Prein, Tim R. McVicar, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Luis Gimeno, Raquel Nieto, Zhenzhong Zeng, Ana Morata, and Deliang Chen

Status: open (until 21 Oct 2026)

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Andres Barrio-Martin, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Nuria P. Plaza-Martin, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Andreas F. Prein, Tim R. McVicar, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Luis Gimeno, Raquel Nieto, Zhenzhong Zeng, Ana Morata, and Deliang Chen
Andres Barrio-Martin, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Nuria P. Plaza-Martin, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Andreas F. Prein, Tim R. McVicar, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Luis Gimeno, Raquel Nieto, Zhenzhong Zeng, Ana Morata, and Deliang Chen
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Latest update: 09 Sep 2026
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Short summary
We identified the atmospheric conditions that distinguish ordinary thunderstorms from four severe weather hazards, highlighting numerical proxies for their modelling in the Mediterranean. Severe winds occur in warm, unstable air (summer) or with strong mid-level winds (other seasons); tornadoes are favored by instability near the ground; large hail occurs when instability and strong winds combine; and short-duration heavy precipitation is favored by high moisture and slow-moving thunderstorms.
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