Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5178
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5178
08 Oct 2026
 | 08 Oct 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Dilemmas and Actions for Tropical Cyclone Risk Insurance under Climate Change: Governmental Bodies, Market Entities, and Scientific Communities

Meng Duo, Jun Hu, Kai Liu, Zhetao Fang, and Shuhan Cao

Abstract. Faced with the increased frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) amid climate change, insurance plays a pivotal role in disaster response and adaptation. Current research on TC risk insurance exhibits a trend of multidisciplinary integration and multi-stakeholder participation. Using a large language model, this paper systematically reviews 890 TC risk insurance publications. Spatio-temporal distribution analysis reveals growing research attention yet persistent spatial imbalances. Co-authorship network analysis uncovers varying but still insufficient degrees of collaboration among three stakeholder groups: governmental bodies, market entities, and scientific communities. Generally, the literature mainly converges on four interlocking dilemmas that constrain the current insurance system: Can TC risk remain insurable under climate change? Is insurance comprehensive enough? Is insurance accessible to those who need it most? Will people purchase insurance even when it is available? In response, the paper proposes a dilemma-aligned tripartite collaboration framework that specifies joint actions for the three stakeholder groups. This framework aims to strengthen cooperation and innovation, advancing the TC risk insurance system toward greater fairness, efficiency, and resilience in a changing climate.

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Meng Duo, Jun Hu, Kai Liu, Zhetao Fang, and Shuhan Cao

Status: open (until 19 Nov 2026)

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Meng Duo, Jun Hu, Kai Liu, Zhetao Fang, and Shuhan Cao
Meng Duo, Jun Hu, Kai Liu, Zhetao Fang, and Shuhan Cao
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Short summary
Climate change worsens tropical cyclones, making insurance critical. Using artificial intelligence, we reviewed over 800 studies and found four linked problems: affordability, coverage gaps, poor access, and low take‑up. No single group can solve these alone. We propose that governments, insurers, and scientists cooperate by sharing data and aligning incentives. This joint approach can create fairer, more effective insurance that better protects coastal communities from growing storm risks.
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